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Nigeria, three others top World Bank debtors’ list
However, the newly released World Bank Fiscal Year 2022 audited financial statements for IDA showed that Nigeria has moved to the fourth position on the list, with $13bn IDA debt stock as of June 30, 2022.
This shows that Nigeria accumulated about $1.3bn IDA debt within a fiscal year, with the country taking over the fourth top debtor position from Vietnam.
This debt is different from the outstanding loan of $486m from World Bank’s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The top five countries on the list slightly reduced their IDA debt stock except Nigeria.
India, which is still the first on the list reduced its IDA debt stock from $22bn in the previous fiscal year to $19.7bn, followed by Bangladesh from $18.1bn to $18bn.
It is followed by Pakistan which cut its debt from $16.4bn to $15.8bn, and lastly, Vietnam, which went down the list to fifth position, from $14.1bn to $12.9bn.
Nigeria has the highest IDA debt in Africa, as the top three IDA borrowers (India, Bangladesh and Pakistan) are from Asia. The World Bank disclosed recently that Nigeria’s debt, which may be considered sustainable for now, is vulnerable and costly.
The bank said, “Nigeria’s debt remains sustainable, albeit vulnerable and costly, especially due to large and growing financing from the Central Bank of Nigeria.”
However, the Washington-based global financial institution added that the country’s debt was also at risk of becoming unsustainable in the event of macro-fiscal shocks.
Economists have also raised concerns over the rising debt profile of the Federal Government.
The Fiscal Policy Partner and Africa Tax Leader of PwC, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, expressed his agreement with the World Bank on the high cost of debt servicing.
He said, “I agree with the World Bank. Although the debt to GDP ratio is not too high, if you think about the debt service cost to revenue ratio, it is already over 70 per cent. That’s when you know it’s costly.
“Nigeria borrows at double-digit, and even when we borrow in dollars, the rates are very high and then you devalue the naira and the cost of servicing the debt in naira goes up because it is dollar-dominated debt.
“Put all of that together, and you can easily say to yourself that even though our debt to GDP ratio is very low, our cost of borrowing is unsustainable because it is very high, and therefore, make it very costly.”
A former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and former presidential candidate, Kingsley Moghalu, also criticised the increasing borrowing tendency of the government, urging the officials to re-consider other ways of generating revenue for the country.
According to Moghalu, it was also not reasonable to borrow for infrastructural development as the government could expand the public-private partnership options for such development.
In a document by the Director General of the Debt Management Office, Patience Oniha, recently obtained by our correspondent, the DMO stated that high debt levels would often lead to high debt services and affect investments in infrastructure.
According to the DMO DG, “High debt levels lead to heavy debt service which reduces resources available for investment in infrastructure and key sectors of the economy.”
A market check on Tuesday showed that NNPCL outlets in Abuja and nearby areas adjusted their petrol price from N1,155 per litre to N1,270 per litre.
The latest adjustment represents an increase of N115 per litre by the state-owned oil company.
The new price change follows recent increases by depot owners and petroleum marketers, who have adjusted their rates twice within a week.
The latest development also comes days after Dangote Refinery resumed the sale of refined petroleum products in dollars, a move that has raised concerns among industry players over the direction of fuel pricing in the country.
The Federal Government has disclosed that 13 of the 50 oil and gas blocks offered in the 2025 Licensing Round will be returned to the licensing basket after failing to attract bids from prospective investors.
The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, disclosed this on Tuesday at the 2025 Commercial Bid Conference in Abuja.
Eyesan said that although 50 blocks were initially put up for bidding, prospective investors showed interest in only 37.
“At the end of the exercise, we had 50 blocks on offer, but we only had representation for 37 of those 50 blocks. Thirteen of those blocks will be returning back to the basket,” she said.
She further disclosed that 143 companies participated in the commercial bid process, submitting about 200 bids for the available oil and gas assets.
“We have a total of 143 companies showing interest for 200 bids. That, for us, was remarkable, and I must say thank you,” Eyesan stated.
According to her, nearly 300 companies initially expressed interest in the licensing round, which she described as a sign of renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.
“When we started the journey, we got interest from almost 300 companies. I repeat, almost 300 companies. That, in my view, was an indication that the tide has turned for Nigeria,” she said.
She explained that the number of interested companies was reduced to 196 following the prequalification stage, before the process moved to the technical and commercial evaluation phases.
“From the almost 300 interests that we got, we moved to the pre-qualification stage, and that number was pruned down to 196,” she added.
The 2025 Licensing Round was launched on November 11, 2025, in accordance with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, with 50 oil and gas blocks put up for bidding across seven sedimentary basins.
The assets comprise 16 Niger Delta onshore blocks, 18 shallow-water blocks, one deep offshore block, three blocks in the Benin Basin, four in the Anambra Basin, four in the Chad Basin and four in the Benue Trough.
The bid portal opened on December 1, 2025, while a pre-bid conference was held in Lagos on January 14, 2026, to provide prospective investors with guidance on the bidding requirements.
Registration and prequalification submissions closed on February 27, 2026, with the prequalification process completed on March 16.
The NUPRC said winning bids are being determined through a weighted evaluation that considers signature bonus commitments, proposed work programmes and performance security. The process combines technical and commercial scores rather than relying solely on financial offers.
The framework is aimed at ensuring that Nigeria’s petroleum assets are awarded to investors with the financial capacity, technical expertise and operational strength required to accelerate exploration and production in the country’s upstream sector.
The new pricing template, which took effect on July 13, 2026, also pegs Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) at $1.087 per litre and Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK) at $0.942 per litre, while coastal deliveries of PMS have been fixed at $1,044.62 per metric tonne.
The development marks the end of naira payments for refined petroleum products, a policy introduced after the commencement of the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude initiative on October 1, 2024.
In a notice issued to petroleum marketers and customers, the refinery announced that all previously issued naira-denominated Proforma Invoices and Deal Recaps for both gantry and coastal transactions had become invalid.
The notice, signed by the refinery’s Group Commercial Operations, directed customers not to make payments against the cancelled invoices, stating that all transactions would now be conducted in United States dollars.
Under the revised pricing schedule, petrol supplied through the gantry will sell for $0.779 per litre, diesel for $1.087 per litre, aviation fuel for $0.942 per litre, while coastal PMS supplies will cost $1,044.62 per metric tonne.
The refinery, however, clarified that the transition does not affect Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), which will continue under its existing payment arrangement.
Industry sources said the decision followed a growing imbalance between the currency used to procure crude oil and that used to sell refined products.
According to the sources, the refinery now receives a larger share of its crude oil from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) under dollar-denominated supply arrangements, while a significant volume of its refined products had continued to be sold locally in naira.
The resulting mismatch, coupled with exchange-rate volatility and fluctuations in global crude oil prices, reportedly increased the refinery’s foreign exchange exposure and prompted the adoption of a uniform dollar-based pricing framework.
A source familiar with the development explained that the shift became necessary as the volume of naira-denominated crude supplies declined relative to dollar-based crude cargoes.
“The refinery is receiving fewer naira-denominated crude cargoes while a larger proportion of its refined products has continued to be sold in naira. That imbalance, combined with foreign exchange volatility, made the transition to dollar pricing inevitable,” the source said.
The decision is expected to have significant implications for petroleum marketers who source products directly from the refinery for nationwide distribution. It could also influence retail pump prices, depending on movements in the exchange rate, international crude oil prices, logistics costs and marketers’ operating expenses.
The Federal Government had introduced the naira-for-crude policy to encourage domestic refining, reduce pressure on foreign exchange demand and stabilise fuel prices. However, industry stakeholders have recently reported implementation challenges, noting that a growing proportion of crude supplies to local refiners has reverted to dollar-based transactions.
Analysts believe the latest development underscores the continued foreign exchange challenges facing Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector despite efforts to deepen local refining and reduce dependence on imported fuel.
Independent petroleum marketers on Monday pushed for the restoration of importation rights and projected that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, could fall below N800 per litre as the Federal Government intensified efforts to force down the cost of petrol.
The development came as the Federal Government met with major operators in the downstream petroleum sector, including representatives of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, over what it described as the disconnect between falling global crude oil prices and the relatively high pump prices of petrol in the domestic market.
The stakeholders’ meeting on cost-reflective pricing of PMS, held at the headquarters of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority in Abuja, brought together the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Retailers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners, and other major operators in the sector.
Also in attendance were chief executives and representatives of TotalEnergies, Eterna Plc, Matrix Energy Group, officials of the NMDPRA, and delegates from the Dangote refinery.
Petrol prices have remained a major source of hardship for households and businesses in Nigeria, with pump prices surging following the spike in global crude oil prices triggered by tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and the United States.
Although crude prices have moderated after diplomatic efforts eased the tensions, the reduction has yet to be fully reflected in domestic petrol prices, prompting the Federal Government to convene a stakeholders’ meeting aimed at driving a fair reduction in pump prices.
The National President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abubakar Maigandi, urged the government to permit independent marketers to import petroleum products directly, saying greater competition would ultimately reduce prices.
Maigandi also called for support for local refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, while stressing the need to allow marketers to import products whenever necessary.
“Our major concern is that if products are to be distributed, let IPMAN buy products directly from the Dangote refinery and then, if we request importation, let IPMAN import by themselves. What we are trying to encourage is our local refinery. Let the government allow the local refinery to function properly and assist those who intend to refine products too,” he said.
The IPMAN president assured Nigerians that independent marketers were prepared to slash petrol prices significantly and projected that pump prices could fall below N800 per litre under the right market conditions.
“The price of the product is coming down bit by bit. Even when the price was increased, it was not increased at the same time. Likewise, now, as the price is coming down, we too are bringing the price down. If you check prices all over the country, you will see that independent petroleum marketers are reducing their prices gradually. Presently, we have reduced by N125 per litre nationwide,” he stated.
Miagandi added, “At any time when there is a reduction in price, we are ready to reduce the price to even below N800 per litre, not even N900. It depends on the way we buy the product from the private depot owners and the Dangote refinery.
“I thank God that the Dangote refinery has accepted independent petroleum marketers to start purchasing products directly. It is a plus, and very soon the populace will see the change in terms of price.”
The renewed push for importation comes amid an intense pricing battle in the downstream sector following the commencement of large-scale production at the Dangote refinery and the deregulation of the petrol market.
Speaking to journalists after a closed-door session with the stakeholders, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, said the government remained concerned that current petrol prices were not reflective of prevailing crude oil prices in the international market.
According to him, the government had engaged marketers in frank discussions aimed at ensuring that the reduction in global crude prices translates into lower pump prices for Nigerians.
Lokpobiri said, “The engagements are ongoing. We had very fruitful and frank discussions with the marketers and the leaders of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry with a view to driving down the price of PMS.
“My own opinion is that the petrol prices are not cost-reflective; they are not reflective of the cost of crude oil. But the marketers are also saying that crude oil prices are still high.
“In fact, somebody told us right there that the crude oil price for a month is still over $90 per barrel. But we are saying that when Brent crude was over $118 per barrel, the price was rapidly going up. Now that the price has come down drastically, why has petrol not come down correspondingly? That is a worry.”
The minister said the government had communicated the concerns of consumers to operators and directed them to return with practical measures that would lead to lower petrol prices.
“We have said that these are the issues of concern to the government. They have also said they will go back and think about what they can put together with a view to addressing the issue of the high cost of PMS that is not reflective of the price of crude in the market.
“We told them the concern of the Nigerian consumer, and they have also said they will go back and think of what concrete steps can be taken with a view to ensuring that the price drops,” he stated.
On when Nigerians should expect a reduction in petrol prices, Lokpobiri said discussions were still ongoing and declined to give a deadline. “As we called you today, we will call you as soon as possible. But the important thing is that discussions are ongoing,” he added.
Before the closed-door meeting, Lokpobiri warned petroleum marketers against using profits from previously acquired expensive fuel inventories as justification for maintaining high petrol prices, insisting that the benefits of lower replacement costs must be passed on to consumers.
The government said the continued disconnect between falling international crude oil prices and domestic petrol prices had become a source of concern, warning petroleum marketers against sustaining high pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit despite declining global crude prices and insisting that Nigerians should enjoy the benefits of lower replacement costs in a deregulated market.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery exported about 466,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel to Europe in June, valued at an estimated ₦757 billion, surpassing shipments from the United States and becoming Europe’s largest supplier during the month.
According to an S&P Global Commodity Insights market report, Nigeria’s jet fuel exports to Europe rose sharply from 232,000 metric tonnes in May to 466,000 metric tonnes in June—the highest monthly volume since the country became a net exporter of aviation fuel in 2024 following the commencement of production at the Dangote refinery.
The June shipment is equivalent to about 582.5 million litres of aviation fuel. At an estimated domestic value of ₦1,300 per litre, the exports are worth approximately ₦757.25 billion.
In contrast, US jet fuel exports to Europe declined significantly, dropping from a record 818,000 metric tonnes in April to 560,000 metric tonnes in May, before falling further to 399,000 metric tonnes in June, leaving Nigeria as the continent’s biggest supplier during the period.
A trader attributed the oversupply in the European market to increased shipments from both Dangote and the US.
“Jet fuel is oversupplied because of high local refinery production. Refineries delayed maintenance to benefit from high prices. The US and Dangote also shipped large volumes. Some flows are also resuming through the Suez Canal from the UAE,” the trader said.
The report noted that the European jet fuel market turned increasingly bearish after prices retreated sharply from the highs recorded during the recent Middle East conflict.
According to Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Northwest Europe jet CIF cargo assessment for July fell to $981.75 per metric tonne on June 30, down from a record $1,694.25 per metric tonne recorded on March 30. The August contract also declined from $1,507.50 to $968.25 per metric tonne over the same period.
Analysts said Europe could receive even more jet fuel supplies in the coming months as the East-West arbitrage remains favourable, encouraging exporters in the Middle East and India to ship cargoes westward.
Although no jet fuel shipments arrived from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in June, exports from Saudi Arabia increased to about 106,000 metric tonnes, up from 7,000 metric tonnes in May. Exports from India also rose from 129,000 metric tonnes to 197,000 metric tonnes.
Despite the current oversupply, traders told Platts that market conditions would largely depend on developments in the Strait of Hormuz, the recovery of Middle Eastern refineries affected by recent conflicts, stronger summer travel demand, and refiners’ decisions to prioritise diesel production over jet fuel.
Meanwhile, data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that the Dangote refinery exported about 1.66 billion litres of refined petroleum products in April 2026.
The exports included 513 million litres of petrol, 534 million litres of diesel, and 615 million litres of aviation fuel, highlighting the refinery’s growing role in supplying both domestic and international markets.
Dangote Refinery remains Nigeria’s only major refinery currently producing refined petroleum products at volumes sufficient for local consumption and export. Rising output has also made Nigeria a net exporter of petrol for the first time in decades, reinforcing the country’s emergence as a major refining and petroleum export hub in Africa.
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