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Why APC may lose 2023 presidential election –PGF DG

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The Director-General of the Progressive Governors’ Forum, Salihu Lukman, has advised the All Progressives Congress against having what he called “blind trust” in some of the leaders of the ruling party towards the 2023 general election.

Lukman warned that the APC may not be able to win the next presidential election or have its candidate to succeed the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.).

The DG of PGF, in a statement issued on Monday and titled ‘Determining Factors for 2023 Contests in APC: Internal Contest and Inconvenient Reality,’ recalled how the ruling party lost governorship election in some states in the 2019 general elections, which he attributed to sabotage by APC leaders in the affected states.

Lukman, therefore, called for regulation of party leaders’ activities, saying there is a need to ensure that “appropriate conditions exist to regulate the conduct of political leaders especially elected representatives.”

He said, “Given that APC has become the go-to party in Nigerian politics, the need to regulate the conduct of party leaders is paramount. Inability to develop the capacity to regulate the conducts of party leaders will be injurious to the vision of developing the APC as a truly progressive party.

“As much as it is a welcome development that the party is winning new members, there must be corresponding effort to regulate the conduct of party leaders, based on which efforts are made to provide new orientation to all party leaders, especially the newcomers.

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“Beyond the need to regulate the conduct of political leaders, there is also the need to appeal to leaders of the party to rise above the narrow attitude of relating with challenges based on estimation of support or opposition for ambitions of party leaders.

“Once political leaders are able to estimate support for their ambitions, what follows is blind trust for both officials of the party and decisions they take even when such decisions are wrong and contravenes provisions of the party’s constitution.”

The DG of PGF pointed out that the immediate past National Working Committee of the APC led by Adams Oshiomhole between 2018 and June 2020 “was a classic case of how many party leaders overlooked the obstinacies of some actions of the Comrade Oshiomhole-led NWC.”

He stressed, “Had all leaders of the party been able to insist that Comrade Oshiomhole-led NWC convened meetings of organs of the party where the required decision to resolve issues could have been taken, perhaps even Comrade Oshiomhole himself would have still remained as the National Chairman of the party.

“Unfortunately, factors of blind trust by many party leaders which produced inconsiderate tolerance for wrong actions became the case. The truth is also that Comrade Oshiomhole and many members of the dissolved NWC became emboldened by the awareness of a divided APC leadership.

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“So long as APC leaders are divided, the potential that elected officials who will emerge in the reconstituted NWC will take advantage of such divisions to manipulate internal processes and in some cases, members of the new NWC may also become part of the problem of the party, in the same way that Comrade Oshiomhole led NWC was, if not worse.”

According to Lukman, part of the requirement for the APC to be able to retain the electoral advantage of Buhari is that “factors of blind trusts in the party must be eliminated.”

He stated that “no matter the estimation of support or opposition of members of the new NWC to the ambitions of leaders, APC leaders must have very high moral credentials such that when the NWC erred, they are not beyond correction; or at least, they should not be allowed to be emboldened by any division in the rank of leadership of the party to block interventions by statutory organs of the party to resolve problems.”

The DG of PGF added, “Similarly, members of the party must not relate with ambitions of party leaders based on blind trust. Members should be able to speak out and critically engage party leaders.

“While there is no guarantee that critical positions of party members will not become the source of disqualification for consideration to appointive and elective positions, it is important that it is recognised that no matter what, it is better to be members of a party in power working to develop Nigeria than to be governed by any party whose mission is adversative to Nigeria’s development.

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 “The other related issue is that when all leaders of the party relate with elected representatives based on demands for appointive positions in whatever form, it also weakens the capacity of party leaders to influence the initiatives of elected representatives.

“Part of it also is that once leaders prioritise issues of securing appointments as the basis of relationship with elected representatives, rather than acting as sources of support for elected leaders, they become sources of distraction. This is dynamic, which played out in APC in 2015. Moving towards 2023, this needs to be rectified.”

According to Lukman, an “inconvenient reality” which every APC leader and member who is committed and working towards protecting the electoral viability of the party should be worried about is that the strongest opponent of the APC is within the APC.

He stated, “The truth is; other parties, especially the PDP, are shadow opposition whose electoral prospects are largely dependent on the outcome of internal contests in the APC, mainly because of the reckless and undisciplined conducts of some APC leaders.

“If anything, the lesson from the 2019 elections, which every APC leader and member should be reminded of is that APC was defeated in Rivers, Zamfara, Bauchi, Adamawa, Oyo and many other places by aggrieved APC leaders who worked against candidates or leaders of the party as a result of internal disagreements around candidate selections for governorship of these states.

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“Such internal disagreement almost cost the party the loss of Imo State until the Supreme Court confirmed the victory of the APC. In Ogun, it was a traumatic victory. Kano State governorship election certainly had its baggage of painful experiences. Lagos State was a shocking narrow victory, no thanks to avoidable challenges. Rambo political contest led to the loss of Edo State in the 2020 governorship election.”

The DG of PGF also said APC leaders should also be reminded that it was “internal rancorous contest” that caused APC to lose the 2014 Ekiti governorship election. He added that a similar rancorous contest produced marginal victory for the APC in the Ekiti and Osun elections in 2018.

According to him, if the APC had face any of the challenges of the governorship elections in Rivers, Zamfara, Bauchi, Adamawa, Oyo, Ogun, Kano, Lagos, Edo, Ekiti and Osun during the 2019 presidential election, winning the election would have been impossible.

“If anything, absence of any problem during the internal contest for the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari as the presidential candidate of the party in December 2014 was a major source of electoral strength, which made the party to win elections in virtually all the states it won in 2019, as well as majority seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives,” he noted.

Lukman, who highlighted Buhari’s electoral performances since 2003, stated that the President’s popularity even before gaining power in 2015 had been a force to reckon with.

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He said, “With such reality, it can be concluded, therefore, without any dispute, that the electoral advantage of the APC is more on account of the presence of President Buhari in the party. The question, which every APC leader and member needs to answer is; will the APC continue to enjoy such electoral advantage when President Buhari is not the Presidential candidate of the party? Is there another leader in the APC with the towering electoral profile of President Buhari?

“These are not easy questions to answer, although it can also be easily expected that every APC leader and member would want APC to continue to have all the electoral advantages associated with President Buhari. Whether there is another leader with the electoral profile of President Buhari, is yet to be seen, at least not based on any electoral evidence.

“Therefore, what can be done to ensure that the APC continues to have all the electoral advantages associated with President Buhari? Is it even possible for APC to continue to have the electoral advantages associated with President Buhari?”

The DG of PGF stated that there is a very high potential that once appropriate organs of the APC are meeting and decisions are being taken in line with the provisions of the party’s constitution, processes of electing standard-bearers of the party for the 2023 elections would be acceptable. He added that party leaders would also accept the result of the election and support the winner.

According to Lukman, part of the reality of the situations in states, especially where APC lost elections as a result of poor management of internal processes, is that the operation of organs of the party requires a lot of improvements to guarantee transparency and fair participation of party members.

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“Often, allegations of manipulations by party leaders, especially around internal processes of candidates’ emergence are the common issues,” he noted.

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Anambra Communities Boil As Group Carpets Traditional Rulers Over Zoning

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By Okey Maduforo, Awka

Ten communities that make up Anaocha Local Government Area of Anambra State are set for a showdown with their traditional rulers following the alleged suspension of the zoning arrangement for the Anambra State House of Assembly elections.

Recall that on April 7, 2022, the traditional rulers, in a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), resolved that the House of Assembly seats for Anaocha I and Anaocha II constituencies would rotate among the ten communities, with each town occupying the seat for two terms.

The traditional rulers further resolved that the rotation would subsist irrespective of the political party through which lawmakers emerge, noting that the arrangement was aimed at ensuring that all ten communities have the opportunity to produce members of the State Assembly in the interest of equity and fairness.

However, the Anaocha Equity Forum, shortly after its meeting, expressed concern over the alleged suspension of the zoning arrangement.

Speaking, the Convener of the Anaocha Equity Forum, Mr. Valentine Okoye, said the forum would not take kindly to what it described as acts capable of destabilising the council area, adding that any such move would be resisted.

“This is a Memorandum of Understanding signed by our traditional rulers, and it has been respected until now. We in the Anaocha Equity Forum see this as a slap on the sensibilities of the ten communities that make up the area,” he said.

“We urge members of the public, political parties, and stakeholders to disregard the alleged position of the traditional rulers, as it does not represent the views and aspirations of our people.

“Our traditional rulers should be mindful of their roles as fathers of their respective communities. They should also understand that they would be held responsible for whatever backlash or consequences may arise from this recent position.

“We call on Governor Charles Soludo to call the traditional rulers to order so that the peace currently enjoyed in Anaocha Local Government Area will not be disrupted,” he stated.

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Mass exodus: Obi, Kwankwaso exit rocks ADC, 18 lawmakers join NDC

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The exit of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, two prominent opposition figures, has weakened the African Democratic Congress across both chambers of the National Assembly.

The National Democratic Congress, which received Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso on Sunday, recorded its biggest gains on Tuesday with the addition of 17 House members and a senator. Weeks earlier, its ranks expanded when Seriake Dickson, representing Bayelsa West, defected from the Peoples Democratic Party to join the party.

The development comes a few days after several opposition parties resolved to present a single presidential candidate against President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections.

The wave of defection to the NDC occurred 48 hours after Obi and Kwankwaso, two of the ADC’s most prominent figures, formally exited the party. These moves have significantly altered the opposition landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections, setting the stage for shifting political alliances.

Additionally, the latest defectors, drawn from Kano, Anambra, Lagos, Edo, Rivers, and Kogi States, cited internal disarray within the ADC as a major factor that influenced their decision.

While reading their letters on the floor of the House, Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu, who presided over the plenary session, said the lawmakers blamed the party’s instability for their departure, noting that the crisis remained “unresolved starting from the ward to the national level.”

The defectors to the NDC are Yusuf Datti, Sani Adamu, Zakari Mukhtari, Kamilu Ado, Harris Okonkwo, George Ozodinobi, Lilian Orogbu, Peter Anekwe, Emeka Idu, Ifeanyi Uzokwe, and Afam Ogene. Others include Lagos lawmakers Thaddeus Attah, Oluwaseyi Sowunmi, George Olwande, and Jese Onuakalusi, as well as Murphy Omroruyi from Edo and Umezuruike Manuchim from Rivers State.

In a separate move, Kogi lawmaker Leke Abejide defected from the ADC to the ruling All Progressives Congress.

The coordinated nature of the defections is widely interpreted as a show of loyalty to Obi and Kwankwaso, whose switch to the NDC is already reshaping opposition dynamics.

Both men are influential political figures with strong regional bases—Obi in the South-East and Kwankwaso in the North-West—and their exit from the ADC appears to have triggered a ripple effect among lawmakers aligned with their political structures.

The ADC’s current troubles did not emerge overnight. In recent months, tensions within the party escalated over leadership struggles, strategy disagreements, and competing ambitions among top figures.

The situation worsened amid reports of irreconcilable differences between Obi, Kwankwaso, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who was also a central figure in opposition coalition talks.

Efforts to build a united front ahead of 2027 reportedly broke down due to mistrust, zoning disagreements, and control of party structures.

Their eventual defection to the NDC marked a turning point. Seen as a more viable platform for consolidating opposition strength, the NDC quickly became a magnet for lawmakers and political actors seeking stability and clearer leadership direction.

With the departure of key figures and a steady decline in its legislative strength, the ADC now faces a daunting struggle to maintain political relevance.

The loss of national figures like Obi and Kwankwaso, combined with the defection of lawmakers across multiple states, appears to have weakened its structure and electoral prospects.

Only last week, the party boasted 24 members of the House of Representatives, but it is now left with six.

Once the dominant opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party may equally struggle to retain its status.

Though still officially the most formidable opposition in the House, the PDP  currently has 29 members in the Green Chamber, down from 116 members in its ranks at the inauguration of the 10th National Assembly in June 2023.

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2027: Akpabio Moves to Block Ex-Governors from Contesting for Senate President

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Barely a year to the inauguration of the 11th National Assembly, the Senate on Tuesday moved to tighten its internal rules, effectively narrowing the path to its most powerful offices and edging out a class of incoming lawmakers, including serving governors and former senators eyeing leadership positions.

In a move widely seen as pre-emptive, the red chamber, after about three hours of a closed-door session, amended Orders 4 and 5 of its Standing Rules, restricting eligibility for both presiding and principal offices to ranking lawmakers with defined legislative experience.

The amendments come amid growing interest by outgoing governors and political heavyweights, many of whom are positioning to enter the Senate in 2027 to contest for top leadership roles such as Senate President and Deputy Senate President.

Under the Revised Order 4, the Senate reinforced a strict hierarchy for the emergence of presiding officers, stating that “Nomination of senators to serve as Presiding Officers shall be in accordance with the ranking of senators and shall be strictly adhered to.

“The order of ranking are (i) Former President of the Senate, (ii) Former Deputy President of the Senate, (iii) Former Principal Officers of the Senate, (iv) Senators who had served at least one term of four years, (v) Senators who had been members of the House of Representatives, (vi) In the absence of i to v, senators elected into the Senate for the first time,” it stated.

Beyond this ranking structure, the Senate introduced a more stringent provision in Order 5, effectively excluding first-time and non-consecutive lawmakers from contesting principal offices.

The amended rule states: “Any senator shall not be eligible to contest for any principal office of the Senate unless he has served as a senator for at least two consecutive terms immediately preceding nomination.”

The implication is far-reaching: senators-elect who were not members of both the 9th and 10th National Assembly would be ineligible to vie for key leadership roles in the 11th Assembly.

Presiding offices in the Senate include the Senate President and Deputy Senate President, while principal offices comprise Senate Leader, Deputy Senate Leader, Chief Whip, Deputy Whip, Minority Leader, Deputy Minority Leader, Minority Whip and Deputy Minority Whip.

The rule changes come against the backdrop of an intensifying scramble for Senate seats ahead of the 2027 general elections, driven largely by governors completing their constitutionally allowed two terms.

No fewer than 10 state governors and several former governors are already angling to secure senatorial tickets, leveraging their influence over party structures to emerge as consensus candidates in their respective states.

At least 12 of the 36 state governors are in their second and final terms, with 10 set to complete their tenure by May 29, 2027.

The looming transition has triggered a wave of political realignments, with many seeking to maintain relevance and influence by moving to the National Assembly.

Eight of the affected governors are from the ruling All Progressives Congress, while Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, belongs to the Peoples Democratic Party, and Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed is aligned with the Allied Peoples Movement.

Those expected to exit office in 2027 include AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Kwara), Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa), Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Babagana Zulum (Borno), Inuwa Yahaya (Gombe), Mai Mala Buni (Yobe), Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos), and Dapo Abiodun (Ogun), alongside Makinde and Bala Mohammed.

Although Bayelsa State Governor Douye Diri and Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma will complete their tenures in early 2028 due to off-cycle elections, both have been drawn into early permutations for Senate seats.

In Imo State, the political temperature has risen sharply following moves by the All Progressives Congress to position Uzodimma for the Imo West senatorial seat.

Party leaders in the state have already named him as the consensus candidate, even as the incumbent senator, Osita Izunaso, is reportedly seeking a return to the red chamber.

Last Saturday, APC leaders from the Orlu Zone (Imo West), led by the state chairman, Chief Austin Onyedebelu, purchased the 2027 senatorial nomination form for the governor, urging him to accept the ticket.

Onyedebelu, who presented the forms to Uzodimma’s Chief of Staff, Chief Nnamdi Anyaehie, called for pressure on the governor to “accept the plea of Orlu people by filling the forms so that it can be submitted before the deadline of 5th May, 2026.”

The state APC has also warned other aspirants against contesting the seat, insisting that Uzodimma remains the consensus choice.

Complicating the contest, former Governor Rochas Okorocha equally purchased nomination forms in a bid to return to the Senate, a move confirmed by one of his aides, Darlington Ibekwe.

The Orlu Political Consultative Assembly further reinforced Uzodimma’s candidacy, declaring him the sole candidate for the district in what it described as a “total, unanimous, and irrevocable decision.”

The unfolding contest is also shaped by internal power dynamics within the ruling party.

Last month, President Bola Tinubu reportedly rebuffed attempts by National Assembly leaders to secure automatic return tickets for lawmakers, instead reaffirming the authority of state governors over candidate selection.

The stance has strengthened governors’ grip on party structures, enabling many of them to influence senatorial nominations as they prepare for life after office.

Against this backdrop, the Senate’s rule amendments appear designed to preserve institutional hierarchy and prevent an influx of first-time lawmakers, many of them politically powerful, from immediately taking control of the chamber’s leadership.

For ambitious entrants like Uzodimma and others plotting a return or debut in the Senate, the message from the red chamber is clear: experience within its ranks, not political clout outside it, will determine who leads in the 11th National Assembly.

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4 returns as Soludo Sends 18-Man List Of Commissioners To Assembly

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By Okey Maduforo Awka

Governor Charles Soludo of Anambra state has finally submitted the first batch of the list of Commissioners made up of 18 nominees to the Anambra State House of Assembly.

Recall that this reporter had predicted that the Governor would announce the list of his Cabinet members on or before the end of this week.

According to the Special Assistant to the Speaker of the Assembly on New Media Mr Franklin Osankwa , the Speaker Hon Somtochukwu Udeze has already sent the list to the Screening Committee of the legislature.

A breakdown of the list indicates that only four former Commissioners who worked with him during his first term in office were returned .

They include the Commissioner for Health Dr Afam Obidike , Professor Offonze Amucheazi Ministry of Lands , Mr Patrick Agba , Youth Development and Commissioner for Information Dr Law Mefor .

Similarly the list of Special Assistants and Senor Special Assistants and Advisers is being awaited .

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Consensus Coup: Governors Tighten Grip on Senate Tickets, Displace Incumbents

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No fewer than 10 state governors and former governors are actively working to replace incumbent senators ahead of the 2027 general elections, in what appears to be a sweeping political realignment reshaping Nigeria’s legislative landscape.
The sitting governors, whose tenure will expire by May 2027, are leveraging their control of party structures in their states to secure Senate tickets—largely through “consensus” arrangements.
At least 12 of Nigeria’s 36 incumbent governors are currently serving their second and final terms. Of that number, 10 will complete their constitutionally mandated eight years on May 29, 2027, setting the stage for a high-stakes political transition that is already unsettling party structures nationwide.
Eight of the affected governors are members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Seyi Makinde of Oyo State belongs to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State is affiliated with the Peoples Democratic Party, contrary to earlier claims linking him to the Allied Peoples Movement.
Governors expected to complete their tenure in 2027 include AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Kwara), Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa), Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Babagana Zulum (Borno), Muhammadu Yahaya (Gombe), Mai Mala Buni (Yobe), Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos), and Dapo Abiodun (Ogun), alongside Makinde and Bala Mohammed.
Although Governors Douye Diri of Bayelsa and Hope Uzodimma of Imo will also finish their second terms, their exit dates fall in January and February 2028, respectively, due to off-cycle elections. However, their extended timelines have not excluded them from early succession and Senate calculations.
Last month, President Bola Tinubu, during a meeting with the leadership of the National Assembly, rebuffed lobbying efforts by lawmakers seeking automatic return tickets ahead of the 2027 elections. Instead, he reaffirmed the authority of state governors over candidate selection in their respective states.
Sources familiar with the meeting revealed that senators had approached the President to seek assurances for automatic tickets.
“The meeting was to plead for automatic tickets, but the President insisted that governors, as party leaders in their states, must have a decisive say on who gets the ticket,” a source disclosed.
Less than 24 hours later, Tinubu convened another meeting with APC governors, where he reportedly gave them a free hand to conduct party primaries in accordance with the Electoral Act—either through consensus or direct primaries.
Niger State Governor Mohammed Bago confirmed this, stating that the President had effectively empowered governors to drive the primaries process.
Investigations across several states—including Yobe, Nasarawa, Adamawa, Ogun, Gombe, Bauchi, Kwara, and Imo—indicate a growing pattern in which party stakeholders endorse governors or their preferred candidates as sole contenders. In many cases, rivals are pressured to step aside, while primaries are either avoided or reduced to mere formalities.
In Yobe State, Senator Musa Mustapha (Yobe East) stepped aside to support Governor Mai Mala Buni after a stakeholders’ meeting in Damaturu. He also withdrew from the governorship race, pledging full loyalty to party leadership decisions.
Similarly, in Gombe State, former governor and Senator Danjuma Goje lost his bid for a fifth term following a zoning arrangement favouring a candidate aligned with Governor Yahaya.
In Imo State, Governor Hope Uzodimma has been endorsed as the consensus candidate for Imo West, despite the interest of incumbent Senator Osita Izunaso. The move has triggered tension, with former governor Rochas Okorocha also entering the race.
In Ogun State, the consensus model has broken down into open conflict, as Governor Dapo Abiodun’s Senate ambition has put him at odds with incumbent Senator Gbenga Daniel.
In Adamawa, Governor Ahmadu Fintiri has emerged as the consensus candidate for Adamawa North, with the incumbent senator stepping aside in his favour.
Similar developments have been recorded in Nasarawa, Kwara, Delta, and Kogi states, where governors and former governors are positioning themselves to take over Senate seats—often displacing incumbents.
Meanwhile, in Cross River State, former governor Ben Ayade revealed he had been asked to drop his Senate ambition following high-level consultations, a decision he described as painful and unjust.

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