Politics
Why APC may lose 2023 presidential election –PGF DG
The Director-General of the Progressive Governors’ Forum, Salihu Lukman, has advised the All Progressives Congress against having what he called “blind trust” in some of the leaders of the ruling party towards the 2023 general election.
Lukman warned that the APC may not be able to win the next presidential election or have its candidate to succeed the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.).
The DG of PGF, in a statement issued on Monday and titled ‘Determining Factors for 2023 Contests in APC: Internal Contest and Inconvenient Reality,’ recalled how the ruling party lost governorship election in some states in the 2019 general elections, which he attributed to sabotage by APC leaders in the affected states.
Lukman, therefore, called for regulation of party leaders’ activities, saying there is a need to ensure that “appropriate conditions exist to regulate the conduct of political leaders especially elected representatives.”
He said, “Given that APC has become the go-to party in Nigerian politics, the need to regulate the conduct of party leaders is paramount. Inability to develop the capacity to regulate the conducts of party leaders will be injurious to the vision of developing the APC as a truly progressive party.
“As much as it is a welcome development that the party is winning new members, there must be corresponding effort to regulate the conduct of party leaders, based on which efforts are made to provide new orientation to all party leaders, especially the newcomers.
“Beyond the need to regulate the conduct of political leaders, there is also the need to appeal to leaders of the party to rise above the narrow attitude of relating with challenges based on estimation of support or opposition for ambitions of party leaders.
“Once political leaders are able to estimate support for their ambitions, what follows is blind trust for both officials of the party and decisions they take even when such decisions are wrong and contravenes provisions of the party’s constitution.”
The DG of PGF pointed out that the immediate past National Working Committee of the APC led by Adams Oshiomhole between 2018 and June 2020 “was a classic case of how many party leaders overlooked the obstinacies of some actions of the Comrade Oshiomhole-led NWC.”
He stressed, “Had all leaders of the party been able to insist that Comrade Oshiomhole-led NWC convened meetings of organs of the party where the required decision to resolve issues could have been taken, perhaps even Comrade Oshiomhole himself would have still remained as the National Chairman of the party.
“Unfortunately, factors of blind trust by many party leaders which produced inconsiderate tolerance for wrong actions became the case. The truth is also that Comrade Oshiomhole and many members of the dissolved NWC became emboldened by the awareness of a divided APC leadership.
“So long as APC leaders are divided, the potential that elected officials who will emerge in the reconstituted NWC will take advantage of such divisions to manipulate internal processes and in some cases, members of the new NWC may also become part of the problem of the party, in the same way that Comrade Oshiomhole led NWC was, if not worse.”
According to Lukman, part of the requirement for the APC to be able to retain the electoral advantage of Buhari is that “factors of blind trusts in the party must be eliminated.”
He stated that “no matter the estimation of support or opposition of members of the new NWC to the ambitions of leaders, APC leaders must have very high moral credentials such that when the NWC erred, they are not beyond correction; or at least, they should not be allowed to be emboldened by any division in the rank of leadership of the party to block interventions by statutory organs of the party to resolve problems.”
The DG of PGF added, “Similarly, members of the party must not relate with ambitions of party leaders based on blind trust. Members should be able to speak out and critically engage party leaders.
“While there is no guarantee that critical positions of party members will not become the source of disqualification for consideration to appointive and elective positions, it is important that it is recognised that no matter what, it is better to be members of a party in power working to develop Nigeria than to be governed by any party whose mission is adversative to Nigeria’s development.
“The other related issue is that when all leaders of the party relate with elected representatives based on demands for appointive positions in whatever form, it also weakens the capacity of party leaders to influence the initiatives of elected representatives.
“Part of it also is that once leaders prioritise issues of securing appointments as the basis of relationship with elected representatives, rather than acting as sources of support for elected leaders, they become sources of distraction. This is dynamic, which played out in APC in 2015. Moving towards 2023, this needs to be rectified.”
According to Lukman, an “inconvenient reality” which every APC leader and member who is committed and working towards protecting the electoral viability of the party should be worried about is that the strongest opponent of the APC is within the APC.
He stated, “The truth is; other parties, especially the PDP, are shadow opposition whose electoral prospects are largely dependent on the outcome of internal contests in the APC, mainly because of the reckless and undisciplined conducts of some APC leaders.
“If anything, the lesson from the 2019 elections, which every APC leader and member should be reminded of is that APC was defeated in Rivers, Zamfara, Bauchi, Adamawa, Oyo and many other places by aggrieved APC leaders who worked against candidates or leaders of the party as a result of internal disagreements around candidate selections for governorship of these states.
“Such internal disagreement almost cost the party the loss of Imo State until the Supreme Court confirmed the victory of the APC. In Ogun, it was a traumatic victory. Kano State governorship election certainly had its baggage of painful experiences. Lagos State was a shocking narrow victory, no thanks to avoidable challenges. Rambo political contest led to the loss of Edo State in the 2020 governorship election.”
The DG of PGF also said APC leaders should also be reminded that it was “internal rancorous contest” that caused APC to lose the 2014 Ekiti governorship election. He added that a similar rancorous contest produced marginal victory for the APC in the Ekiti and Osun elections in 2018.
According to him, if the APC had face any of the challenges of the governorship elections in Rivers, Zamfara, Bauchi, Adamawa, Oyo, Ogun, Kano, Lagos, Edo, Ekiti and Osun during the 2019 presidential election, winning the election would have been impossible.
“If anything, absence of any problem during the internal contest for the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari as the presidential candidate of the party in December 2014 was a major source of electoral strength, which made the party to win elections in virtually all the states it won in 2019, as well as majority seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives,” he noted.
Lukman, who highlighted Buhari’s electoral performances since 2003, stated that the President’s popularity even before gaining power in 2015 had been a force to reckon with.
He said, “With such reality, it can be concluded, therefore, without any dispute, that the electoral advantage of the APC is more on account of the presence of President Buhari in the party. The question, which every APC leader and member needs to answer is; will the APC continue to enjoy such electoral advantage when President Buhari is not the Presidential candidate of the party? Is there another leader in the APC with the towering electoral profile of President Buhari?
“These are not easy questions to answer, although it can also be easily expected that every APC leader and member would want APC to continue to have all the electoral advantages associated with President Buhari. Whether there is another leader with the electoral profile of President Buhari, is yet to be seen, at least not based on any electoral evidence.
“Therefore, what can be done to ensure that the APC continues to have all the electoral advantages associated with President Buhari? Is it even possible for APC to continue to have the electoral advantages associated with President Buhari?”
The DG of PGF stated that there is a very high potential that once appropriate organs of the APC are meeting and decisions are being taken in line with the provisions of the party’s constitution, processes of electing standard-bearers of the party for the 2023 elections would be acceptable. He added that party leaders would also accept the result of the election and support the winner.
According to Lukman, part of the reality of the situations in states, especially where APC lost elections as a result of poor management of internal processes, is that the operation of organs of the party requires a lot of improvements to guarantee transparency and fair participation of party members.
“Often, allegations of manipulations by party leaders, especially around internal processes of candidates’ emergence are the common issues,” he noted.
By Okey Maduforo, Awka
The planned visit of the First Lady of Nigeria, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, to Anambra State has sparked controversy following a protest by the state Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Emma Anosike, that the party was not informed about the visit.
Anosike said the APC in Anambra was never consulted or briefed about the proposed visit, adding that the party was taken aback by reports that the wife of the party’s national leader and presidential candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, would be visiting the state without recourse to the state chapter.
He said, “It is indeed strange that the First Lady of our presidential candidate is visiting Anambra State without recourse to the party in the state.
“The party wishes to state categorically that we are not part of the arrangements for the reception of our First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, because the party was never put in the picture.”
Anosike also dismissed the mantra that “The Progressives Are Working Together”, being canvassed by the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), describing it as a smokescreen by the ruling party in Anambra to hijack President Tinubu’s re-election from the APC.
He said, “For instance, the APGA-led government in Anambra State did not interface with us on the organisation of the visit, and the party wonders if the progressives are indeed working together.”
The APC chairman, however, said the development would not compromise the First Lady’s visit, urging all APC members and supporters in the state to turn out and give Senator Oluremi Tinubu a warm welcome.
He stressed that despite the party’s reservations over the arrangements, APC members remained committed to welcoming the First Lady to Anambra State.
Former Deputy Governor of Bauchi State, Sagir Saleh, has resigned his membership of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Saleh, who served as deputy governor under former Governor Isa Yuguda, announced his resignation in a letter submitted to the party leadership in Katagum Local Government Area.
He cited personal reasons for his decision but did not provide further details.
His exit comes amid growing disagreements within the Bauchi APC following the party’s 2027 governorship primary. Other prominent members, including former governorship aspirant Bala Jibrin and Sunusi Kunde, an associate of Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof. Ali Pate, have also reportedly left the party.
Jibrin, a former National Auditor of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), resigned on August 31, 2026, following his opposition to the emergence of former Bauchi Governor Muhammad Abubakar as the APC’s 2027 governorship candidate.
He had criticised the primary process and questioned how the candidate emerged.
Kunde also resigned from the APC in August, submitting his resignation to the party chairman of Beti Ward in Misau Local Government Area.
The latest departures are coming as efforts continue to resolve internal disputes and disagreements among APC members in the state.
The Leader of INRI Evangelical Spiritual Church, Primate Elijah Ayodele, has raised the alarm over an alleged plot to assassinate former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar ahead of the 2027 general election.
Ayodele issued the warning in a video shared on his verified X account on Sunday, urging both opposition figures to strengthen their security and remain vigilant.
The cleric did not identify those allegedly behind the purported plot but claimed that attempts were being made to eliminate Obi and Atiku.
According to him, divine intervention would prevent the alleged plan from succeeding.
“Obi and Atiku, be very conscious of your security. They are looking for any means to eliminate Obi and Atiku.
“But God will never allow it to happen. Watch out and be cautious about your security,” he said.
Ayodele also urged President Bola Tinubu to reconsider travelling to the United States, alleging that there were forces in America working against his political fortunes.
The claims come as political activities and realignments intensify ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
Why the Igbo Must Choose Political Strategy Over Emotional Politics
By Emma Igwe
There comes a moment in the political history of every people when sentiment must give way to strategy.
For the South-East, 2027 may be that moment.
The question before the Igbo nation is not whether an Igbo man should one day become President of Nigeria. Of course he should. The question is whether the Igbo people are prepared to do the difficult political calculations required to make that aspiration a reality.
And that is where the 2027 presidential election becomes more than a contest between political parties.
It becomes a referendum on the political intelligence of the South-East.
Will the region continue to vote primarily to satisfy ethnic emotions and demonstrate loyalty to its own?
Or will it begin to think several political moves ahead—like a chess player who understands that sometimes the best way to capture the king is to first control the board?
THE HARD TRUTH THE SOUTH-EAST MUST CONFRONT
Peter Obi has demonstrated something remarkable.
He has shown that an Igbo politician can generate extraordinary enthusiasm among millions of Nigerians, particularly young people. His political movement has changed the conversation about presidential politics and created a new generation of politically conscious voters.
But enthusiasm is not the same thing as electoral mathematics.
The South-East must ask a difficult question:
Can regional popularity, without a sufficiently broad and durable national coalition, deliver the presidency?
That question is not an attack on Obi.
It is the central question of Nigerian politics.
The same principle applies to Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. His influence in Kano and parts of the North is considerable. Historically, Mallam Aminu Kano demonstrated how powerful regional political mobilisation could become.
But regional strength alone has never been enough to guarantee the Nigerian presidency.
Nigeria is a federation of competing interests.
The presidency is won by coalition.
And the Igbo must learn to build coalitions without surrendering their identity.
AZIKIWE, EKWUEME AND THE POLITICS OF REALISM
History provides the South-East with a political textbook.
Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe was one of Nigeria’s most influential nationalist leaders. Yet his enormous stature and regional influence did not automatically translate into the presidency.
Alex Ekwueme took a different route.
In the Second Republic, he became Vice-President through a political arrangement that placed an Igbo leader at the very heart of the federal government.
That distinction is important.
Zik represented the grandeur of the national dream. Ekwueme demonstrated the power of political positioning.
The lesson is not that the Igbo should abandon presidential ambition.
The lesson is that presidential ambition must be accompanied by political architecture.
This is precisely why the David Umahi argument deserves a more sophisticated examination than the usual name-calling that accompanies it.
UMAHI’S POLITICAL GAMBLE
Like him or hate him, David Umahi understands one fundamental principle of politics:
You cannot negotiate from the margins if you want to control the centre.
His decision to work with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has attracted criticism from many quarters of the South-East.
But political history will ultimately judge whether that decision was merely opportunistic or whether it represented a calculated attempt to reposition the South-East within Nigeria’s governing establishment.
As Minister of Works, Umahi is also uniquely positioned to make the infrastructure argument.
The Federal Government says major road and bridge projects are currently being executed across Ebonyi and the wider South-East, including sections of the Calabar–Ebonyi–Benue–Nasarawa–Abuja corridor and the Ndi-Egbe Bridge linking Ebonyi with Cross River.
Umahi has repeatedly argued that the Tinubu administration is reversing decades of infrastructure neglect in the region. In June 2026, he specifically cited projects that he said had remained unrealised for decades.
These claims should be scrutinised, not blindly accepted.
But neither should they be dismissed simply because they come from a politician whose political position many people dislike.
THIS IS NOT ABOUT LOVING TINUBU
Here lies the fundamental misunderstanding.
The argument for the South-East supporting Tinubu in 2027 does not have to mean that every Igbo man suddenly becomes an APC loyalist.
It does not mean that every policy of the Tinubu administration must be applauded.
It does not mean that the South-East should surrender its independent political voice.
It means something much more sophisticated:
The South-East should negotiate with power instead of permanently positioning itself outside power.
There is a difference between loyalty and strategy.
A political party is not a religion.
A presidential candidate is not a tribal deity.
Politics is transactional.
Every serious political region negotiates.
The Yoruba negotiate.
The North negotiates.
The South-South negotiates.
Why should the Igbo be the only people expected to vote purely from emotion?
THE 2031 CALCULATION
This is where the debate becomes particularly interesting.
If Tinubu wins in 2027, the political conversation will inevitably move toward the succession question.
Who takes over after Tinubu?
Which region?
Which coalition?
Which political bloc has accumulated sufficient goodwill, influence and bargaining power to negotiate the next presidential arrangement?
The South-East cannot wait until 2031 before asking these questions.
The political preparation must begin in 2027.
That is the strategic argument behind Umahi’s position.
If the South-East becomes a critical component of the governing coalition in 2027, it potentially creates a stronger negotiating platform for the future.
That does not guarantee an Igbo presidency.
Nothing in Nigerian politics comes with such a guarantee.
But it may create a better platform from which to negotiate one.
And that is the difference between political fantasy and political strategy.
THE BIGGEST MISTAKE WOULD BE TO TURN OBI AND UMAHI INTO ENEMIES
There is perhaps a more important question.
Why must Peter Obi and David Umahi be treated as political enemies simply because they have chosen different routes?
They are both prominent Igbo political figures.
One has demonstrated extraordinary grassroots mobilisation and national visibility.
The other currently occupies one of the most influential positions in the federal infrastructure establishment.
One understands mass political mobilisation.
The other understands the mechanics of government and federal power.
Why should these strengths not be brought together?
Why must the argument always be:
Obi versus Umahi?
Why can’t it become:
Obi and Umahi—what is the best strategic route for the Igbo nation?
The two men do not have to belong to the same political party.
They do not have to endorse the same presidential candidate.
They do not even have to agree on every issue.
But they can sit down as Igbo leaders and discuss the future beyond their personal political ambitions.
That conversation is long overdue.
THE SOUTH-EAST NEEDS A POLITICAL RESET
The greatest danger facing the South-East is not that it supports the wrong candidate.
It is that it continues to approach Nigerian politics primarily through the prism of emotional solidarity.
Every election becomes:
“This is our turn.”
“This is our brother.”
“This is our son.”
But Nigeria does not operate on sentiment.
The presidency is a national institution.
To occupy it, you need national numbers.
To acquire national numbers, you need alliances.
To sustain alliances, you need political relevance.
And to achieve political relevance, you must be present where national decisions are being made.
That is the political centre.
THE PRICE OF PERMANENT OPPOSITION
The South-East has spent years complaining about marginalisation.
Yet political marginalisation cannot be defeated by political isolation.
That is the paradox.
You cannot complain that Abuja is ignoring you while simultaneously refusing to develop a sustainable strategy for influencing Abuja.
You cannot demand inclusion while permanently behaving as though participation in the governing coalition is a betrayal of your identity.
The Igbo are too politically sophisticated for that contradiction.
The region must move beyond the politics of grievance to the politics of negotiation.
WHAT SHOULD THE IGBO DEMAND FROM TINUBU?
If the South-East is to support Tinubu, it should not be a blank cheque.
It should be a contract of political expectations.
The region should demand:
accelerated completion of strategic federal roads and bridges;
stronger federal presence in industrial and economic development;
greater political inclusion;
protection of businesses and investments;
improved security and regional connectivity;
greater representation in national appointments;
deliberate inclusion in future national power-sharing negotiations; and
a credible pathway toward greater political participation in the post-2027 era.
That is how mature politics works.
You do not merely vote. You negotiate.
UMAHI’S MESSAGE MAY BE UNCOMFORTABLE—BUT SHOULD NOT BE DISMISSED
Umahi has reportedly urged South-East political stakeholders to rally behind Tinubu in 2027, and has even framed the choice in terms of continued access to federal development projects.
That formulation will certainly provoke controversy.
But perhaps controversy is precisely what the South-East needs.
For too long, political debate has been reduced to accusations of betrayal.
Anyone who disagrees with the dominant regional political position is quickly labelled an enemy of the Igbo cause.
That mentality must end.
A political argument should be defeated with a better political argument—not with abuse.
If Umahi is wrong, prove that his strategy cannot deliver greater political influence.
If Obi is wrong, demonstrate why his strategy cannot build the coalition necessary to win the presidency.
But let the debate be about strategy, not personality.
THE CHOICE BEFORE THE SOUTH-EAST
The South-East now stands at a crossroads.
One road offers emotional satisfaction.
The other offers strategic uncertainty but potentially greater access to the political centre.
One says:
“Let us vote for our own because he is our own.”
The other asks:
“What political arrangement gives our people the greatest bargaining power?”
The second question is the question of statesmen.
The Igbo presidential dream should not be abandoned.
It should be redesigned.
It should be negotiated.
It should be built upon alliances stretching across the six geopolitical zones.
And if supporting Tinubu in 2027 can place the South-East in a stronger bargaining position for 2031 and beyond, then the question should not be whether such a strategy is emotionally satisfying.
The question should be whether it is politically intelligent.
LET UMAHI AND OBI SIT DOWN
Ultimately, this debate should not end with Tinubu.
It should begin with the future of the Igbo nation.
David Umahi and Peter Obi should sit down.
Not for a television debate.
Not for political combat.
Not to determine who is more popular.
They should sit down as two influential Igbo sons and ask one question:
“How do we get the Igbo nation back to the centre of Nigerian political power?”
If the answer requires supporting Tinubu today, let them say so.
If the answer requires another route, let them articulate it.
But let the South-East have the conversation.
Because the real tragedy would not be losing an election.
The real tragedy would be winning the argument for ethnic pride while losing the opportunity for political power.
The Igbo do not need another election of emotional satisfaction.
They need a political strategy.
And perhaps, for the first time in decades, the South-East must learn to choose not merely the candidate it loves—but the political arrangement that can take it where it wants to go.
National relevance must become more important than ethnic ego.
That is the uncomfortable conversation 2027 demands.
The African Democratic Congress has unveiled its governorship and deputy governorship candidates for the 2027 general elections in 28 states.
The party announced the candidates in a statement on Friday, saying they would fly the ADC flag in the various states and provide Nigerians with what it described as a credible alternative in the forthcoming elections.
Among the prominent candidates unveiled are Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour in Lagos State, Isa Mohammed Ashiru in Kaduna, Great Ogboru in Delta, Senator Ahmad Babba Kaita in Katsina and former Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, in Kebbi.
Other states where the party has fielded candidates include Adamawa, Kano, Rivers, Oyo, Ogun, Plateau, Zamfara, Enugu and Ebonyi.
The ADC said the candidates were selected as part of its efforts to present credible leadership and offer Nigerians a “real alternative” ahead of the 2027 elections.
The full list is as follows:
- Abia: Kalu Kalu Agu — Governor; Alozie Ogadinma Darlington — Deputy Governor
- Adamawa: Modibbo Hammantukur Ribadu — Governor; Aguwa Kevin Iliya — Deputy Governor
- Akwa Ibom: Akpanudoedehe John James — Governor; Nsien Mkpombuk Tommy — Deputy Governor
- Bauchi: Senator Halliru Dauda Jika — Governor; Sama’ila Mohammed Kabir — Deputy Governor
- Benue: Rt. Hon. Herman Iorwase Hembe — Governor; Abba John Abba — Deputy Governor
- Borno: Babagana Buhari — Governor; Mamman Dauda — Deputy Governor
- Cross River: Nkoyo Toyo — Governor; Okwoche Andrew Adagbor — Deputy Governor
- Delta: Chief Great Ogboru — Governor; Afiari Gloria — Deputy Governor
- Ebonyi: Ukpai Mba Udeh — Governor; Onwe Daniel Ede — Deputy Governor
- Enugu: Ocho Obodoeze Chukwuma — Governor; Eze Arinze Christopher — Deputy Governor
- Gombe: Bala Bello — Governor; Bala Sani Isa — Deputy Governor
- Jigawa: Sabo Mohammed Nakudu — Governor; Musa Ya’u Balarabe — Deputy Governor
- Kaduna: Isa Mohammed Ashiru — Governor; Kantiok Irmiya Ishaku — Deputy Governor
- Kano: Ibrahim Ali Amin — Governor; Shehu Abdulkadir Bari — Deputy Governor
- Katsina: Senator Ahmad Babba Kaita — Governor; Aminu Yar’adua Ahmed — Deputy Governor
- Kebbi: Abubakar Malami — Governor; Zagi Musa Mohammed — Deputy Governor
- Kwara: Zakari Mohammed — Governor; Olawuyi Julius Olayide — Deputy Governor
- Lagos: Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour — Governor; Gbadamosi Babatunde Olalere — Deputy Governor
- Nasarawa: Nuhu Angbazo — Governor; Ahmed Yusuf — Deputy Governor
- Niger: Dr Mohammed Kpautagi — Governor; Musa Mamman — Deputy Governor
- Ogun: Biodun Collins Ogundipe — Governor; Muraina Oluwaranti Oluyemi — Deputy Governor
- Oyo: Taofeek Adegboyega Adegoke — Governor; Wahab Adeniyi — Deputy Governor
- Plateau: Brig. Gen. John Sunday Sura — Governor; Pwajok-Kele Chundung Bitrus — Deputy Governor
- Rivers: Gabriel Pidomson — Governor; Okumgba David Amapakaye — Deputy Governor
- Sokoto: Manir Mohammad Daniya — Governor; Isah Bello Ambarura — Deputy Governor
- Taraba: Abubakar Umar Tutare — Governor; Kwetishe Haruna Kwenyan — Deputy Governor
- Yobe: Kassim G. Gaidam — Governor; Kori Lawan Mohammed — Deputy Governor
- Zamfara: Shinkafi Bilyaminu Yusuf — Governor; Muhammad Abdulmuddalib Auwal — Deputy Governor
The party said the candidates would work under its platform to advance its agenda and present voters with an alternative ahead of the 2027 governorship elections.
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