Economy
Naira crashes to 1, 030/$, speculators react
The naira crashed against the dollar on Monday, falling to 1, 030/$ on the average in the parallel market, losing the momentum it gathered last week.
This represents a N80 loss or a 8.42 per cent decline of the local currency compared to the N950 it closed the week at last Friday.
This is also the first time the naira is falling since the Central Bank of Nigeria began to clear some of its FX backlog last week.
Currency traders, also known as Bureaux De Change operators said that the naira was trading at between N990 to N1,030/$.
A trader who gave his name as Awolu said, “The dollar is N995 if you want to sell. If you want to buy from me, it is N1,020.” Another trader, Kadri, added, “The dollar is N960 if you want to sell. If you want to buy, it is N990.”
According to the President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria, Aminu Gwadabe, the dollar has gained against the naira because people who had bought it at a higher price are resisting its fall following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s move last week.
Last week the apex bank has commenced the payment of outstanding matured FX forwards owed to various banks.This was meant to boost liquidity in the foreign exchange market following weeks of the naira falling to record lows. According to the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, the amount of overdue forward payments was about $6.7bn.
This move quickly led to the appreciation of the naira with the naira gaining about N220 after closing the week at N950/dollar at the parallel market. The naira has now seemingly lost this momentum. Confirming the closing price of the dollar Gwadabe said, “In the afternoon, it was N1,015 and N1,020/$. It closed at N1,030/$.”
He highlighted, “Speculators are always looking at elements of sustainability. Once they sense that it (the injection) is not continuous, they begin to react. They begin to react. It is the reaction of the market we are witnessing. Also, there is resistance. There are people that bought at a higher price that this does not favour. People are not willing to take further losses.
“The only way we can continue to achieve the rate is by continuing to send confidence to the market. Tell the market that another window is opening, and boost liquidity. The parallel market is where the retail end is. And as of now, there is no information as to how liquidity will come into that sector. All we have is that BDCs will be included to advance the official foreign exchange market. We cannot wait in the FX market.”
Also, the naira declined by 3.6 per cent at the official market to close at N809.02 to the dollar on Monday from N780.23/$ on Friday according to details on FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange.
• Says economic reforms have placed Nigeria on recovery path
• Shettima insists economy would have collapsed without tough decisions
President Bola Tinubu has declared that his administration has no regrets over the removal of petrol subsidy, insisting that Nigeria will never return to the old subsidy regime despite criticisms from political opponents.
Tinubu made the declaration on Monday evening at an event tagged Together Till 2027: An Evening with Original City Boy, organised by the City Boy Movement in collaboration with the Relax-Tinubu-Is-Fixing-Nigeria movement.
Defending his decision to remove fuel subsidy on May 29, 2023, the President said Nigeria was heading towards bankruptcy when he assumed office, stressing that the country could no longer sustain the financial burden.
Drawing an analogy from the biblical account of Moses leading the Israelites out of Egypt, Tinubu said returning to the subsidy regime would amount to reversing Nigeria’s journey towards economic recovery.
“You cannot ask Moses to go back to Egypt. We wake up with ideas, original thoughts, and deep thinking to move this country forward. With your energy, your support, Nigeria will never go back to Egypt. No regrets,” he declared.
The President also took a swipe at his political opponents, particularly former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who had proposed restoring a modified petroleum subsidy arrangement if elected in 2027.
Tinubu maintained that his administration inherited enormous economic challenges, including depleted foreign reserves, outstanding obligations to foreign airlines and unsustainable government borrowing.
He explained that rather than dwell on the shortcomings of the previous administration, he accepted responsibility for addressing the country’s economic difficulties.
According to him, the difficult decisions taken by his government have begun yielding positive results, with the economy recording steady growth.
Turning to the 2027 presidential election, Tinubu urged young Nigerians to mobilise support for his administration and ensure that eligible voters obtain their Permanent Voter Cards.
He maintained that the forthcoming election should be about securing the country’s future rather than advancing the personal ambition of any candidate.
“You are not campaigning for me. You are campaigning for your own future, and that future is Renewed Hope,” he stated.
The President also defended the Students Loan Act, revealing that more than one million students had benefited from the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, NELFUND.
He commended his son, Seyi Tinubu, and members of the City Boy Movement for mobilising young Nigerians, urging them to intensify their grassroots engagements ahead of the election.
Speaking earlier, Vice President Kashim Shettima insisted that Nigeria’s economy would have collapsed without the far-reaching reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration.
Shettima argued that the President demonstrated courage by implementing difficult policies at a time when the country’s economic outlook was increasingly uncertain.
He cited economic growth of 4.43 per cent in the last quarter and foreign reserves reportedly approaching $60 billion as evidence of the administration’s progress.
Acknowledging the hardship experienced by Nigerians, the Vice President maintained that the situation could have been worse without the government’s intervention.
He also assured Nigerians that the administration was preparing measures to address agricultural challenges and bring down food prices.
“The President has to be commended, not demonised. Yes, Nigerians have gone through some tough times, but it could have been worse,” Shettima said.
In his remarks, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin described the City Boy Movement as a technology-driven political organisation capable of strengthening Tinubu’s reelection campaign.
He urged the group to deploy artificial intelligence in communicating the President’s policies, achievements and political philosophy while responding to opposition narratives.
Similarly, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, called on political officeholders to present verifiable accounts of projects and interventions delivered under the Tinubu administration.
Abbas disclosed plans to publish an audit of federal government interventions in his Zaria constituency within 14 days, challenging other public officeholders to demonstrate what they had achieved for their constituents.
He urged the City Boy Movement to independently verify government projects and provide feedback from ordinary Nigerians.
Earlier, the Director-General of the movement, Francis Shoga, assured Tinubu that Nigerian youths were prepared to mobilise nationwide in support of his Renewed Hope agenda.
Shoga described members of the organisation as committed partners in the administration’s national transformation programme, pledging to take its message to communities across the country.
Tinubu’s latest declaration comes amid continuing debate over the economic consequences of fuel subsidy removal, which triggered sharp increases in petrol prices and contributed to rising living costs across Nigeria.
By Francis Onoh
It is the right of every Nigerian to be financially included in the system. Data from the country’s foremost financial institution, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the organisation Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access show that approximately 40% of Nigerians adults are financially excluded.
Attaining the 3.4% projected growth in the economy’s GDP will be difficult if not impossible, if the petty traders, the local skill workers and the roadside sellers are excluded from financial services and products that can aid their businesses. Enhancing financial inclusion for economic growth requires that financial literacy be extended and incorporated into the activities of organisations that work at the grassroots, for example, religious institutions.
Although with low levels of literacy, Emeka, Haruna or Bankole as devoted adherents of their various religions, are more likely to understands that their money is secure in the financial sector, that products such as pension plan, health insurance schemes and access to credit are available for citizens who are financially included, if and only if leaders of their religion introduce financial literacy to them. Combining their obligation to teach articles of their faith with introducing their members to financial literacy is one way to go if our country has to remedy the financial exclusion created by poverty and limited access to formal education.From the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index, the dimensions of poverty are Health, Education and Standard of Living.
Access to financial services can encourage people to enrol in a health insurance scheme to ensure good health within a manageable expenditure. A financially included person will have formal or informal education by association, which will invariably improve the living standard.
A financially included person is more likely to increase their business share if they access credit facilities in the financial sector and stand a better chance to benefit from government poverty alleviation programmes or even access funds from international development.
Making about 40% of Nigerian adults, which is about 35 million people, financially included will enhance capital formation assets, improve citizens’ disposable income, grow the nation’s financial sector and in extension catalyse industrialisation, which the country direly needs at this time. Financial inclusion for all is a necessary good that should be pursued by the Nigerian government at all levels, and stakeholders, such as religious leaders, must be made aware of their obligation in this space.
The time to do this is now.
Francis Onoh writes from Enugu
The Bank gave this warning on Monday during the public presentation of its latest Nigeria Development Update report titled ‘Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth’ in Abuja.
President Bola Tinubu signed the 2025 Appropriation Act into law, approving a record budget of N54.99tn, the highest in Nigeria’s history.
The budget was raised from the initial proposal of N49.7tn submitted to the National Assembly.
The fiscal plan makes provisions for N13.64tn in recurrent expenditure, N23.96tn for capital projects, N14.32tn for debt servicing, and N3.65tn for statutory transfers, while projecting a deficit of N13.08tn, to be financed through domestic and external borrowing.
The budget assumptions include a crude oil benchmark of $75 per barrel, oil production at 2.06 million barrels per day, an average exchange rate of N1,400/$, and an inflation target of 15 per cent.
Speaking at the event, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Nigeria, Mr Alex Sienaert, said that despite strong revenue gains recorded in 2024, Nigeria’s 2025 budget assumptions remain optimistic and may prove difficult to meet.
He said, “It’s a very ambitious budget. Even with the very positive revenue sort of tailwind that we have… even considering that, it looks like it’s going to be pretty hard to meet some of the ambitious revenue targets that are in there.”
According to him, key assumptions such as average daily crude oil production of 2.1 million barrels per day and a benchmark oil price of $75 per barrel are unlikely to hold, noting that current production figures are closer to 1.6 million barrels per day.
He also cited uncertainty over how much revenue would flow from the removal of the petrol subsidy and the planned windfall tax on foreign exchange gains, saying these could weaken the Federal Government’s revenue position.
“This is important because if it does turn out that the revenue targets are not met, then that could mean that the financing requirements are more than budgeted. And if the financing requirements exceed what’s budgeted, then that’s either going to create arrears pressures… or it could renew risks of recourse to things like deficit monetisation under large-scale Ways and Means,” he said.
Sienaert warned that although Nigerian authorities had pledged not to resort to the CBN’s overdraft facility, doing so again could derail the country’s fragile macroeconomic recovery.
“The authorities have been very clear that they will by no means be going back to large-scale use of Ways and Means, but were that to happen, it would be just extremely disruptive to the whole rebuilding of confidence in fiscal sustainability and in the naira ultimately,” he noted.
On broader fiscal matters, the World Bank called on the Federal Government to eliminate the electricity subsidy, which it described as a “wasteful, regressive subsidy.”
Sienaert said key fiscal reforms such as the removal of the petrol subsidy and the adoption of a market-reflective exchange rate had helped improve the government’s fiscal position, but further reforms were needed.
“There’s still a range of fiscal policy and fiscal management issues where more can be done to safeguard the gains that have already been achieved… just to name, there is still one kind of wasteful regressive subsidy, which is the electricity subsidy. So work to address that,” he said.
He also advocated for improved oil revenue transparency and a reduction in the cost of governance, saying efforts to increase non-oil revenue must continue.
Sienaert noted that although the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited began applying official exchange rates for fiscal transactions in October 2023, only half of the revenue gains from the subsidy removal had been remitted to the Federation Account by January 2025.
“It’s just going to be important in the coming months to keep tracking this, and ultimately that the full revenue gains from the difficult job of eliminating the subsidy do flow to the Federation so that that can support a continued healthy fiscal picture and, in turn, spending on development priorities,” he said.
On inflation, the World Bank economist said monetary policy reforms had helped reduce inflationary pressures but noted that consumer prices remained high.
“We do need to acknowledge that price pressures remain elevated,” he said. “The battle against inflation continues, and to extend the military analogy a little bit, there’s a kind of fog of war… quite dense just at the moment.”
He added that recent changes to the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics had made it difficult to determine the current trend in inflation, noting, however, that continued coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities would be critical to restoring confidence.
The World Bank further urged the government to ramp up implementation of its targeted cash transfer programme aimed at cushioning the cost of reforms on poor households. The programme currently offers N25,000 monthly for three months to 15 million recipients.
“The implementation has just been quite slow. So only about a third of those recipients have received transfers so far. The good news is that this is being scaled up… and just important that that effort really continues so that as many people as possible get help,” Sienaert said.
Looking ahead, he called for a new growth strategy based on a “private-led, public-facilitated” model.
The World Bank also stressed the need to reduce costs of governance, including cutting “wasteful expenditures that are not essential, such as purchase of vehicles, external training, etc.” and reducing “the cost of collection of GOEs (FIRS, NCS, NMDPRA, NUPRC, etc.).”
He emphasised the need for increased investment in education and health, noting that Nigeria’s combined spending in these sectors remained among the lowest globally.
“In 2022, Nigeria was only spending 1.2 per cent of GDP on education and 1.8 per cent on health, or $23 per Nigerian per year on education, $15 per Nigerian per year on health,” he said.
He said private sector growth must also be supported by improving the competitive landscape and reviewing trade policies that restrict access to essential production inputs.
“Competition is like the sort of secret sauce that drives innovation and economic transformation. And in Nigeria, there’s some evidence… that actually there are elements of competition policy, and there are conditions that are needed for good competition that actually even compared to some of Nigeria’s immediate peers… the Nigerian competitive landscape lags some of those,” he said.
The Bank believes that following through with these reforms will position Nigeria to achieve its goal of becoming a $1tn economy by 2030.
The Naira depreciated to N1,600 per dollar in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) today after three months of being on the N1,500 per dollar threshold.
Data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, showed that the indicative exchange rate for the naira rose to N1,600 per dollar from N1,569 per dollar on Thursday, indicating N31 depreciation for the naira.
Likewise, the naira depreciated to N1,565 per dollar in the parallel market from N1,555 per dollar on Thursday.
Consequently, the margin between the parallel market and NFEM rate widened to N35 per dollar from N14 per dollar on Thursday.
Vanguard News
Fasua, who spoke on the Mic On Podcast hosted by Seun Okinbaloye on Saturday, also addressed how poverty is measured globally, saying many Nigerians misunderstand what is termed “multi-dimensional poverty.”
He said, “Some people don’t understand the meaning of multi-dimensional poverty.
“They think multi-dimensional poverty is worse than food poverty. What multi-dimensional means is that maybe the school your children attend is too far from you, or the hospital, and they categorise you as multi-dimensional.”
“$1 is N1,500 – it’s a lot of money for many people in Nigeria. $10 won’t buy you lunch anywhere in the US, sometimes you need at least $20, that is N30,000 in Nigeria,” Fasua stated.
Offering examples from everyday life, Fasua added, “I will tell you what you can do with $5 – that is N7,500 – if you are not going to eat in some highbrow places. In Gwarinpa, there are some people that sell Boli and fish and you will eat for N1,500. If you know where you are coming from.
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