Politics
2023: What may affect Atiku, Obi, Tinubu’s chances
The organisation said the secessionist agitations in the South-East could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the presidential candidate of Labour Party, Peter Obi, or that of the People’s Democratic Party, Abubakar Atiku.The CDD made the observation in a report titled ‘Nigeria’s presidential polls: A SWOT Analysis’ released in Abuja.
The organisation warned that rising insecurity, misinformation, money politics, religion and ethnic narratives may undermine the credibility of the 2023 election.
The report signed by the CDD Director, Idayat Hassan, said that the Independent National Electoral Commission would require about 1.5 million election and security officials to successful prosecute the elections.
The report said, “With political campaigns looming in the coming weeks, key governance issues, such as insecurity would be a factor in the political calculations for the leading candidates as they traverse the country.
“The report noted in the northwest, the hot button issue of security of lives and property would have an impact on the performance of the APC candidate, Tinubu.
“At the same time, the secessionist agitations in the southeast could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the Labour Party flag bearer Peter Obi or People’s Democratic Party candidate Abubakar Atiku.”
According to the report, the negative influence of religion, ethnicity and money politics could also undermine the credibility and acceptability of the elections, if not properly addressed.
The CDD said the divisive factors have already played a role in shaping the emergence of the four major party candidates running in the presidential election of next year.
Hassan, who rated the legal framework in place for the elections as robust and laudable, however noted that the conduct of political actors would be critical if the benefits of such framework were to be enjoyed across the board.
The report read, “Religion is likely to feature prominently in debates following the APC’s decision to contest the presidency with a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Renewed youth engagement in politics, a feature of the voter registration period, could also be transformative and favour Obi.
“Money will continue to play a huge role in determining who emerges the winner if the presidential primaries and recent gubernatorial elections offer any lesson. Finally, online campaigns will be more fiercely fought than ever, with attacks aimed at boosting candidates, attacking opponents and undermining INEC likely to be accentuated in social media in the run-up to, during and even after voting.”
The CDD added that citizens’ access to electoral infrastructure would remain constant throughout the campaign and during the voting period, especially for those displaced internally by conflict.
On the character and composition of INEC and the implications for the polls, the report recalls that INEC chairman, Prof. Mahmud Yakubu, is the first chair of the election management body to be appointed for a second term in the country’s history.
The report observed the backlash generated by the replacement of 19 Resident Electoral Commissioners at the Commission, noting the perception that a number of the replacements are alleged to be partisan and lack integrity could impact the elections; however, CDD stressed that the 2022 Electoral Act may have introduced several changes that would continue to improve the credibility of elections.
The CDD said that cases of inconclusive election would be drastically reduced in 2023 as the new Electoral Act now defines overvoting in terms of accredited voters as against registered voters, adding that INEC would also be able to, according to the new act, review results signed under financial inducement or duress.
The report said, “Insecurity remains a critical issue, particularly in the North-West and South-East. Further challenging this operation are the prevailing structural, infrastructural, and cultural ecosystems in which the polls will take place.
“Prompt release of the entire INEC budget could help mitigate some of these. Finally, the role played by the security agencies, and subsequently by the judiciary, may be as crucial in determining the credibility of the election as that of the election management body.
“Nigeria is currently facing an epidemic of insecurity. The violence led by bandits, terrorists and secessionists has been recorded across its six geo-political zones, further dividing the country along ethnic, religious and political lines. Holding credible polls in this context that guarantees the security of voters and INEC personnel will be a major challenge. The ability of INEC to conduct continuous voter registration has already been questioned as insecurity has prevented the Commission from deploying to all wards across all electoral districts.”
The Court of Appeal in Abuja has upheld a Federal High Court judgment restraining the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from recognising state congresses conducted by committees appointed by the David Mark-led caretaker leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
In a split decision of two to one, the three-member panel affirmed the earlier ruling of the Federal High Court, holding that the congresses organised under the caretaker committee violated an existing court order.
Justice Okon Abang, who delivered the lead judgment, ruled that there was no basis to set aside the restraining order issued by Justice Joyce Abdulmalik on April 29.
The appellate court also upheld the lower court’s decision barring the caretaker leadership from interfering with the functions and tenure of the party’s duly elected state executive committees.
According to the court, the ADC Constitution vests the responsibility for conducting state congresses in the elected state executive committees, not the national caretaker leadership.
Justice Donatus Okorowo concurred with the lead judgment, while Justice Abba Mohammed dissented, arguing that the matter was an internal affair of the political party and therefore outside the jurisdiction of the courts.
The suit was filed by aggrieved members of the ADC, who challenged the legality of committees established by the David Mark-led caretaker leadership to conduct state congresses. They argued that the appointments breached the party’s constitution, insisting that only duly elected party organs had the authority to organise state congresses.
In its earlier ruling, the Federal High Court held that the four-year tenure of the ADC’s State Working Committees and State Executive Committees remained valid until fresh congresses and a national convention were properly conducted.
Justice Abdulmalik further ruled that neither the 1999 Constitution nor the ADC Constitution empowered the caretaker committee to appoint committees to conduct state congresses.
While noting that courts generally refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of political parties, the judge held that judicial intervention is justified where constitutional or statutory provisions are alleged to have been breached.
Affirming the lower court’s decision, the Court of Appeal declared the state congresses and national convention conducted by the David Mark-led caretaker leadership null and void for being carried out in defiance of an existing court order.
The appellate court stressed that once a dispute raises constitutional issues, it ceases to be merely an internal party matter and becomes subject to judicial review.
Consequently, the court dismissed the ADC’s appeal, upheld all the orders of the Federal High Court, and awarded ₦10 million in costs against the party.
By Chinedu Sabastine
A pro-Yoruba women group, operating under the banner of Yoruba Women in Politics (YWIP), has applauded the Deputy National Chairman (South) of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr. Benjamin Obi Nwoye, for strengthening the party across the Southern part of Nigeria barely three months he assumed office.
They said: “Dr. Benjamin Obi Nwoye is a very honest and open person. He has done considerably well,” the group said.
He was also praised for displaying high democratic ideals and delivering electoral victories for the ruling party in Southern Nigeria.
Chairperson of the women group Mrs. Dorothy Akinyele, in a statement issued in Akure, the Ondo state capital on Saturday applauded Nwoye “for his loyalty, strength of character, and consistency of purpose to the cause of democracy.”
They expressed delight and satisfaction “with the high degree of determination so far exhibited by Nwoye to applying the principle of fair play in treating all party members and asserting independence and neutrality in most cases.”
The highly revered South West women body also commended Nwoye “for deepening the party’s structures in the South-west, South-South and South-East, empowering women and youth and building a stronger APC and a more inclusive future for Nigeria.”
In particular, the women lauded Nwoye “for mobilizing support for President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election, preserving the progressive ideals upon which the APC was built and curtailing the abuse of democratic norms in the ruling party.”
According to them, “Dr. Benjamin Obi Nwoye is level headed, has milk of human kindness flowing in his veins and committed to the success of President Tinubu and the party in 2027 and beyond,” YWIP said.
It therefore, described Dr. Nwoye as “the influential exponent of national unity,” extolling him for ensuring a smooth internal
Democratic process in his home state Enugu, the coal city state.
The Presidential Candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, has dismissed a public debate challenge from the Minister of Works, Dave Umahi, saying the minister must first become a presidential candidate before seeking such an engagement.
Obi made the remark during an interview with media entrepreneur Chude Jideonwo, where he responded to Umahi’s challenge following his criticism of the condition of Nigerian road.
The former Anambra State governor argued that presidential debates are reserved for candidates seeking the nation’s highest office, insisting that Umahi does not fit that category.
According to Obi, the controversy over the poor state of the roads had already produced results, noting that his criticism prompted repairs.
“If he is inviting me to a debate as a presidential candidate, then he has to become a presidential candidate first,” Obi said.
Drawing an analogy with international football, the NDC presidential flagbearer likened Umahi’s challenge to a team that failed to qualify for the FIFA World Cup inviting a qualified team to a match.“The World Cup is going on now. You cannot stay outside and invite a team that qualified for the World Cup to come and play against you simply because you think you are good. No. There is a qualification process,” he added.
Obi maintained that leadership should be measured by performance rather than rhetoric, suggesting that the repairs carried out after his criticism underscored the importance of holding public officials accountable.
His response comes days after Umahi declared that Obi posed no political threat to President Bola Tinubu or the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), while challenging him to a public debate over the state of federal roads and infrastructure across the country.
Ada Ogbu, who made the clarification in a statement posted on her official X account on Saturday, was responding to Keyamo’s ultimatum demanding that Obi apologise to airport officials, pay a ₦25,000 parking fine or face action by the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN).Executive Branch
Ogbu, who described herself as an eyewitness, maintained that she was among those who accompanied Obi to the airport on Saturday, July 4, and categorically denied the minister’s claim that the politician was driven by a police officer.
“As a member of the team that accompanied His Excellency @PeterObi to the Abuja airport on Saturday, July 4, I can state categorically that he does not have a police officer as his driver in Abuja. Therefore, if airport CCTV captured a police officer entering the driver’s seat of a vehicle, that vehicle could not have been Mr. Obi’s,” she stated.
She further argued that the incident highlighted by Keyamo was different from the one Obi narrated during his interview with media personality Chude Jideonwo.
According to her, Obi’s frequent travels across the country have exposed him and his aides to repeated hostile treatment by airport personnel.Government
“It is also important to note that Mr. Obi travels through as many as ten Nigerian airports every week. Over time, there have been several acts of hostility directed at him and members of his team by airport personnel across different locations,” Ogbu said.
She concluded that the aviation minister had referenced an entirely separate incident.
“Based on the account shared by the Honourable Minister, it is clear that the incident Mr. Obi referenced during his interview with @Chude did not occur on the date or at the airport cited by the Minister. They are plainly two different incidents.”
Her reaction comes hours after Keyamo released CCTV-based findings from an internal inquiry into the airport incident, insisting Obi must publicly apologise to airport workers and pay the prescribed parking fine within one week or risk further action by FAAN.
President Bola Tinubu on Friday formally retained Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election.
This was as political parties made last-minute moves to beat the Independent National Electoral Commission’s deadline for the submission of presidential and National Assembly candidates.
The ruling All Progressives Congress presented the nomination forms of Tinubu and Shettima to its National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, in Abuja for onward transmission to INEC, effectively ending months of speculation that the President could replace his deputy with a northern Christian.
The development came as INEC confirmed that it had received the presidential and vice-presidential nominations of the African Democratic Congress, Nigeria Democratic Congress, Social Democratic Party, Action Alliance, African Action Congress, Peoples Redemption Party and Young Progressives Party.
Meanwhile, several other political parties continued uploading the names of their candidates ahead of the commission’s Saturday midnight deadline.
The electoral commission had fixed July 11, 2026, as the deadline for political parties to upload the nomination forms of their presidential and National Assembly candidates through its online nomination portal in accordance with Section 29(1) of the Electoral Act, 2026.
The submission exercise, which commenced on June 27, covers Forms EC9 and EC9A to EC9E for presidential, vice-presidential, Senate and House of Representatives candidates.
According to the timetable released by the commission, political parties are expected to begin uploading the names of governorship and State House of Assembly candidates from July 18, with the exercise ending on August 8.
INEC is scheduled to publish the personal particulars of presidential and National Assembly candidates on August 1, while those of governorship and state assembly candidates will be displayed on August 29 to allow members of the public raise objections where necessary.
The commission also fixed August 22 as the deadline for the withdrawal and substitution of presidential and National Assembly candidates, while governorship and state assembly candidates have until September 19 for withdrawal or replacement in line with the provisions of the Electoral Act.
The July 11 deadline marks one of the most critical stages in the build-up to the 2027 general elections, as only candidates validly nominated by political parties through primaries monitored by INEC are eligible for submission.
The commission had repeatedly warned political parties against submitting the names of candidates different from those who emerged from duly monitored primaries, insisting that any nomination outside the provisions of the Electoral Act and its regulations would be rejected.
Against this backdrop, the APC used Friday’s presentation ceremony to publicly affirm its presidential ticket, signalling that it would head into the 2027 contest without altering the Muslim-Muslim ticket that secured victory in the 2023 presidential election.
Following President Tinubu’s emergence as the APC’s presidential candidate during the party’s convention, political discussions had intensified over whether the President would retain Shettima or opt for another running mate to broaden the party’s electoral appeal.
Those speculations gathered momentum in recent months amid reports that the ruling party was considering a northern Christian as vice-presidential candidate to address concerns over religious balancing.
Friday’s submission, however, ended the uncertainty, with the APC formally presenting Tinubu and Shettima as its flag bearers for the 2027 election.
The nomination documents were presented on behalf of the President by his Special Adviser on Political Matters, Ibrahim Masari, during a ceremony attended by members of the Progressive Governors’ Forum, the National Assembly, the Federal Executive Council, the APC National Working Committee, state chairmen of the party and APC governorship candidates.
Earlier, the APC National Organising Secretary, Sulaiman Argungu, described the event as the formal presentation of the duly completed nomination forms of the party’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
Argungu noted that President Tinubu had earlier secured the party’s presidential ticket through what he described as a transparent primary election, and urged party members to remain united ahead of the 2027 polls.
He also commended the President for what he described as the achievements of his administration before formally handing over the nomination documents to the APC National Chairman for onward submission to INEC.
Speaking on behalf of APC governors, Imo State Governor, Senator Hope Uzodimma, reaffirmed the governors’ support for President Tinubu and the party leadership.
“We are delighted that this event is coming after a well-organised and thoroughly supervised primary process. We reiterate our commitment to continue supporting President Tinubu and the party,” he said.
Uzodimma said the APC remained committed to internal democracy and inclusiveness, adding that the governors would continue mobilising support for the President across the country.
“We will continue to support him in the larger interest of Nigerians and to take the country to greater heights. To the National Working Committee, we reaffirm our support. Together, we are going to deliver victory for President Tinubu and ensure the party wins all elective positions, including the National and State Assemblies,” he added.
Receiving the nomination forms, APC National Chairman, Prof. Yilwatda, described the event as a reflection of the confidence reposed in President Tinubu by millions of party members across the country.
According to him, the President’s endorsement by members of the party demonstrated widespread support for his administration and its policies.
He stated, “Today is a reflection of the wishes of over 12 million members of the APC who overwhelmingly voted for Mr. President as the party’s candidate for the 2027 presidential election. We are proud that APC members across the country cast over 12 million votes for Mr. President and overwhelmingly endorsed him.
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