Politics
2023: What may affect Atiku, Obi, Tinubu’s chances
The organisation said the secessionist agitations in the South-East could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the presidential candidate of Labour Party, Peter Obi, or that of the People’s Democratic Party, Abubakar Atiku.The CDD made the observation in a report titled ‘Nigeria’s presidential polls: A SWOT Analysis’ released in Abuja.
The organisation warned that rising insecurity, misinformation, money politics, religion and ethnic narratives may undermine the credibility of the 2023 election.
The report signed by the CDD Director, Idayat Hassan, said that the Independent National Electoral Commission would require about 1.5 million election and security officials to successful prosecute the elections.
The report said, “With political campaigns looming in the coming weeks, key governance issues, such as insecurity would be a factor in the political calculations for the leading candidates as they traverse the country.
“The report noted in the northwest, the hot button issue of security of lives and property would have an impact on the performance of the APC candidate, Tinubu.
“At the same time, the secessionist agitations in the southeast could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the Labour Party flag bearer Peter Obi or People’s Democratic Party candidate Abubakar Atiku.”
According to the report, the negative influence of religion, ethnicity and money politics could also undermine the credibility and acceptability of the elections, if not properly addressed.
The CDD said the divisive factors have already played a role in shaping the emergence of the four major party candidates running in the presidential election of next year.
Hassan, who rated the legal framework in place for the elections as robust and laudable, however noted that the conduct of political actors would be critical if the benefits of such framework were to be enjoyed across the board.
The report read, “Religion is likely to feature prominently in debates following the APC’s decision to contest the presidency with a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Renewed youth engagement in politics, a feature of the voter registration period, could also be transformative and favour Obi.
“Money will continue to play a huge role in determining who emerges the winner if the presidential primaries and recent gubernatorial elections offer any lesson. Finally, online campaigns will be more fiercely fought than ever, with attacks aimed at boosting candidates, attacking opponents and undermining INEC likely to be accentuated in social media in the run-up to, during and even after voting.”
The CDD added that citizens’ access to electoral infrastructure would remain constant throughout the campaign and during the voting period, especially for those displaced internally by conflict.
On the character and composition of INEC and the implications for the polls, the report recalls that INEC chairman, Prof. Mahmud Yakubu, is the first chair of the election management body to be appointed for a second term in the country’s history.
The report observed the backlash generated by the replacement of 19 Resident Electoral Commissioners at the Commission, noting the perception that a number of the replacements are alleged to be partisan and lack integrity could impact the elections; however, CDD stressed that the 2022 Electoral Act may have introduced several changes that would continue to improve the credibility of elections.
The CDD said that cases of inconclusive election would be drastically reduced in 2023 as the new Electoral Act now defines overvoting in terms of accredited voters as against registered voters, adding that INEC would also be able to, according to the new act, review results signed under financial inducement or duress.
The report said, “Insecurity remains a critical issue, particularly in the North-West and South-East. Further challenging this operation are the prevailing structural, infrastructural, and cultural ecosystems in which the polls will take place.
“Prompt release of the entire INEC budget could help mitigate some of these. Finally, the role played by the security agencies, and subsequently by the judiciary, may be as crucial in determining the credibility of the election as that of the election management body.
“Nigeria is currently facing an epidemic of insecurity. The violence led by bandits, terrorists and secessionists has been recorded across its six geo-political zones, further dividing the country along ethnic, religious and political lines. Holding credible polls in this context that guarantees the security of voters and INEC personnel will be a major challenge. The ability of INEC to conduct continuous voter registration has already been questioned as insecurity has prevented the Commission from deploying to all wards across all electoral districts.”
President Bola Tinubu has directed the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to immediately return to court and vacate the order freezing the Osun State Government’s accounts, citing the need to safeguard public confidence in the democratic process ahead of the state’s governorship election.
In a statement issued by the State House on Thursday, the President said he was not opposed to the EFCC exercising its statutory powers but expressed concern over the timing of the action, noting that Osun is only days away from the August 15 governorship poll.
Tinubu said he was “deeply embarrassed” not by the anti-graft agency’s mandate, but by the decision to freeze the state’s accounts at such a sensitive political period.
The EFCC had obtained a court order on August 5, 2026, as part of an investigation into alleged financial infractions involving the Osun State Government. The commission maintained that its actions were lawful, insisting it could freeze accounts suspected to be linked to financial crimes and seek judicial approval for extended restrictions.
The President, however, said actions taken by federal institutions are often attributed to him, regardless of whether he had prior knowledge of them.
He reiterated that since assuming office, he had consistently allowed anti-corruption agencies to operate independently without political interference, stressing that strong democratic institutions were essential to the rule of law.
Despite this position, Tinubu said the proximity of the Osun governorship election made the timing of the EFCC’s action inappropriate and required his intervention to prevent any perception that federal agencies were being used to influence the electoral process.
According to him, although he had not been fully briefed on the facts behind the investigation, the overriding public interest demanded that confidence in the integrity and fairness of the election be protected.
The President subsequently directed the EFCC to immediately return to court, vacate the freezing order and discontinue the action against the Osun State Government.
The development follows a dispute between the Osun State Government and the EFCC over allegations of financial misconduct. The state government has denied claims of misappropriating ₦11 billion and accused the commission of attempting to justify its decision to freeze the accounts, while the EFCC insists its investigation is strictly based on its statutory mandate and not politically motivated.
Osun State Governor and Accord Party governorship candidate, Ademola Adeleke, has reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to resisting all forms of intimidation through lawful and democratic means as the state prepares for the August 15 governorship election.
In a series of posts on his X account on Thursday, Adeleke said his administration remains focused on prudent management of public resources and implementing people-centred policies that have improved the lives of residents across the state.
The governor expressed appreciation to party members and supporters in Ayedaade Local Government Area for the massive turnout during his campaign visit, describing the reception as a strong endorsement of his continuity agenda.
According to him, the enthusiasm shown by supporters reflects their determination despite what he described as repeated provocations.
Adeleke urged his supporters to remain peaceful, vigilant and united, insisting that the best response to intimidation is discipline and a massive turnout on election day.
His remarks come amid controversy over the reported freezing of the Osun State Government’s statutory allocation account by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) as part of an ongoing investigation.
The Nigerian Bar Association has criticised the EFCC’s action, arguing that the anti-graft agency lacks the constitutional authority to impose a blanket restriction on a state’s finances without due legal process.
Meanwhile, the Osun State Government has denied any financial wrongdoing. Commissioner for Information and Public Enlightenment, Kolapo Alimi, accused the EFCC of acting on the alleged directive of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola to frustrate the payment of workers’ palliatives.
The Osun governorship election is scheduled for August 15, with Adeleke seeking a second term under the Accord Party platform.
Amid allegations of financial impropriety rocking the Ondo State House of Assembly, lawmakers on Wednesday held a parliamentary meeting to deliberate on pending legislative matters and announced the constitution of a four-member panel to investigate and audit the Assembly’s accounts, including the alleged involvement of the Speaker, Olamide Oladiji.
The meeting was held at the Assembly complex, but the Speaker and his Deputy, Ololade Gbegudu, were absent. The Majority Leader, Hon. Olatunji Oshati, however, attended the meeting.
Addressing journalists after the meeting, the Chairman of the House Committee on Information, Hon. Olatunji Ifabiyi, alongside some lawmakers, confirmed that the Assembly’s accounts would be audited.
Ifabiyi, who did not disclose the identities of members of the four-member probe panel, said the leadership of the House had been under pressure to resume legislative activities.
He said the lawmakers considered it necessary to reconvene to discharge their constitutional responsibilities of lawmaking and oversight, following concerns over the prolonged absence of plenary sessions and committee meetings.
According to him, the lawmakers deliberated on issues affecting the development of Ondo State, including constituency projects, community development and the welfare of residents across the state’s 18 local government areas.
Speaking on the political situation in the Assembly, Ifabiyi said lawmakers had not abandoned their plan to impeach the Speaker, but were awaiting further directives from the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
He dismissed allegations that lawmakers had been financially induced to abandon the impeachment move, insisting that the process remained pending.
“We are still waiting for the leadership of the party. We are unable to proceed further until the leadership of the party asks us to. So, it’s pending. We are still on course,” he said.
On the role of the state government in the crisis, Ifabiyi said Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa had no role in the day-to-day running of the legislature, describing the intervention of the APC leadership as a normal party affair.
“The Governor does not intervene in the running of the legislature. It is normal for a party to intervene because we are from the same family,” he said.
He added that the APC leadership should treat all members of the Assembly equally, noting that all 26 lawmakers belonged to the same political party.
“Our father will not prefer one person at the expense of 26. Our father will not do that,” Ifabiyi said.
The Ward Executive Committee of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Ward 9, comprising Amoli, Ogugu, Owelli and Ugbo in Awgu Local Government Area of Enugu State, has reaffirmed the indefinite suspension of Mr SKC Ogbonnia from the party.
The Ward said the suspension took effect on May 18, 2026, following the conclusion of disciplinary proceedings conducted in accordance with the party’s constitution.
In a statement dated August 5, 2026, the Ward Executive Committee clarified that the suspension was not a recent decision and remains valid and binding until it is reviewed or lifted by the appropriate organs of the party.
According to the committee, the disciplinary action followed the report of a duly constituted Ward Disciplinary Committee set up to investigate petitions and complaints alleging anti-party activities, gross misconduct, acts of sabotage and conduct considered prejudicial to the interests of the NDC.
The Ward Chairman, Hon. Chief Chukwunta Chibuike Fabian, said the committee observed the principles of fair hearing and due process by issuing several invitations to Ogbonnia and giving him opportunities to appear and respond to the allegations against him.
However, the committee alleged that Ogbonnia failed and refused to honour the invitations or participate in the disciplinary proceedings.
According to the Ward, his alleged refusal to appear compelled the disciplinary committee to conclude its assignment based on the evidence before it.
The report was subsequently adopted unanimously by the Ward Executive Committee, which resolved that Ogbonnia be suspended indefinitely from the NDC with effect from May 18, 2026.
The party said the allegations against him included persistent anti-party activities, gross misconduct, disloyalty, attempts to undermine the party’s leadership, programmes and electoral interests, conduct capable of bringing the party into public disrepute, and disregard for the party’s constitution and lawful directives.
The Ward Executive Committee also claimed that its internal verification showed that Ogbonnia was not recognised as a registered member of the NDC in Ward 9.
The committee questioned the basis of his alleged association with the party and expressed concern over his possession of the Ward’s account number.
According to the Ward, it did not authorise or disclose its account details to Ogbonnia and called on him to explain how he allegedly obtained the information.
The committee further stated that, throughout the period of his suspension, Ogbonnia is prohibited from attending or participating in meetings, programmes, activities or decision-making processes of the NDC.
It also warned that he must not present himself publicly as a member, official or representative of the party unless and until the suspension is reviewed or lifted by the appropriate party authorities.
The Ward Executive Committee said the disciplinary action was necessary to protect the integrity, discipline, unity, constitutional order and credibility of the NDC.
It reaffirmed its commitment to accountability, internal democracy and what it described as zero tolerance for conduct detrimental to the collective interests of the party.
The statement was signed by Hon. Chief Chukwunta Chibuike Fabian, Ward Chairman, NDC Ward 9, Awgu Local Government Area, Enugu State.
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has reportedly frozen a bank account belonging to the Osun State Government, just 10 days before the state’s governorship election, heightening political tension ahead of the August 15 poll.
Documents obtained by Vanguard indicate that the account, domiciled with First Bank and reportedly used for the payment of workers’ salaries, has been placed on “Post No Debit” status by the anti-graft agency.
The development came barely hours after Governor Ademola Adeleke raised the alarm over an alleged plot by the EFCC to freeze the state government’s accounts and those of key government officials.
In a statement issued on Wednesday by the Commissioner for Information and Public Enlightenment, Kolapo Alimi, the governor described the reported move as a deliberate attempt to cripple the operations of his administration ahead of the governorship election.
Adeleke argued that there was no legal basis for the action, insisting that the EFCC lacked the statutory authority to freeze the accounts of a state government.
A source close to the governor, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to comment publicly, confirmed that the restriction had already taken effect.
“I can confirm that the state government account has been frozen by the EFCC. It is no longer an allegation. The governor will address the press shortly to update the public on the situation,” the source said.
As of the time of filing this report, the EFCC had yet to issue an official statement confirming or explaining the reported action. The reason for the account restriction also remained unclear.
The reported account freeze is expected to heighten political tensions in Osun as political parties intensify their campaigns ahead of the August 15 governorship election.
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