News
New refineries: NNPCL may cut crude supply to Dangote plant
This reduction is expected to take place as part of adjustments under the government’s naira-for-crude initiative following the coming onstream of the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries.
Both refineries currently operate at a combined capacity of about 135,000 barrels per day. The plants, managed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, commenced operations recently after years of neglect by successive governments, preferring fuel imports.
It was gathered that the planned reduction of crude to the Dangote refinery was also predicated on the necessity to ensure a sufficient supply of crude to all refineries.
This is aimed at boosting competition in the downstream sector, with the government facilitating this through the naira-for-crude initiative. Before the initiative, the government used to allocate about 445,000 barrels per day of crude to domestic refineries operated by NNPCL.
Impeccable sources knowledgeable about the development disclosed the planned slash in crude supply to the Dangote refinery during a chat with our correspondent on Wednesday.
One of the sources who did not want to be mentioned because he was not permitted to speak with the press, confirmed to The PUNCH that, “It is clear that crude allocation to Dangote refinery and other local refineries will be reduced because all our refineries are coming back. Old Port Harcourt is working. New Port Harcourt is almost done. Warri just joined last week. “
Last year, the Federal Executive Council adopted a proposal by President Bola Tinubu to sell crude to the Dangote refinery and other
upcoming refineries in the local currency.
FEC approved that the 450,000 barrels meant for domestic consumption be offered in naira to Nigerian refineries, using the Dangote refinery as a pilot.
Similarly, other refineries with lower capacity were scheduled to receive allocations.
Findings showed that the $20bn Lekki-based plant was allocated about 300,000 barrels per day out of the 450,000bpd approved by the government.
The agreement was designed to last six months in the first instance, pending further review by the Technical Sub-Committee on Domestic Sales of Crude Oil in Local Currency.
However, this agreement will undergo slight adjustments following the commencement of refining operations at the 210,000PortHarcourt refinery and the 125,000 Warri refinery.
The source stressed that the only solution to the impending crude supply cut was for oil production to improve.
The official added, “Warri is now onstream, too, and Kaduna is coming. So the current share of those 450,000 barrels will now be shared between all of them. Remember also that the BUA refinery is coming.
“So, it is very likely that the 300,000 barrels the Dangote refinery is getting currently will be reduced. The formula for how it would be shared is still sketchy, but it is almost certain that it would be reduced. NNPCL won’t deprive itself of crude oil.
“At least, if Port Harcourt will get 50,000 barrels. Other refineries’ share will be reduced to 250,000. New Port Harcourt will come. Warri, too, is still there. So the only solution to this thing is to increase production, which the government is working hard on.”
The government had redirected crude allocation of 445,000 barrels formerly disbursed to the Warri, Kaduna, and Port Harcourt refineries following their shutdown to the Dangote refinery.
The official also stated that the government has stopped selling its crude on credit to local refineries for improved revenue collection.
“Another issue now is that the government will no longer sell its crude on a credit basis. You would have to pay before you can pick up crude products. The refiners are not happy about it, but revenue to the government is also important.”
The Dangote refinery may fall back on crude oil import, which is subject to international pricing.
Commenting on the latest development, the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria stated that the initiative was an intervention designed to address the foreign exchange market volatility and drive down the retail price of petrol, which has been achieved.
The CORAN Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, in an interview, however, argued that the coming onstream of the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries is not expected to cut down allocation to local refineries.
He said, “The naira for the crude agreement was purely an intervention at the time to boost local production and then provide some cushion from the volatility of the foreign exchange market. It wasn’t so much about the crude but the FX.
“While I don’t know the mind of the government and regulators if one would infer from the solution to address the volatility, the coming onstream of the Warri and Port Harcourt refinery is to make sure the price of petrol remains affordable for Nigerians. You would agree with me that against all norms, the petrol price has dropped in the last month. We still expect that the price will drop further.
“If we go by this analogy, I don’t think it would change the announcement by the government concerning the naira for crude. However, the agreement signed for this deal stated that it was for refineries producing PMS, which only Dangote and Port Harcourt are currently doing. The one in Warri is not producing because it’s undergoing rehabilitation.”
Idoko pointed out that “this also indicates that there is a serious need for the upstream segment to ramp up production and produce more crude.”
Meanwhile, the national oil company may encounter new challenges in meeting local crude demands, with fresh indications that the oil firm is seeking an additional $2bn to stabilise its finances and invest in new oil infrastructure to boost crude oil production.
A report by Africa Intelligence recently stated the NNPC should announce in the next few days that it has finalised the new syndicated crude oil-backed loan.
Christened Project Leopard, the operation, it said, will enable the company to raise $2bn in total in exchange for crude oil.
This will push the volume of loans for crude to $8bn within four years. The country is still repaying these loans.
These deals have continued despite complaints from domestic refineries that the national oil firm is not meeting its quota.
The country’s average daily production stood at 1.8m barrels per day as of November 2024.
Last year, the Vice President of the Dangote Group, Edwin Devakumar, accused NNPCL of failing to meet its crude oil supply obligations under the naira-for-crude agreement.
Devakumar explained that the national oil company had committed to supplying the refinery with a minimum of 385,000 bpd under the crude-for-naira deal.
“We need 650,000 barrels per day, and NNPC Ltd agreed to supply a minimum of 385,000 bpd, but they are not even delivering that,” Devakumar stated.
The CORAN official also lamented the same issue, stating, “We trust that the government will listen to us for the naira for crude and address the issue of the non-availability of crude to local refineries. CORAN, as a body representing local refineries, is willing to work with the government in any way to increase the quota. Private refineries should also be allowed to own marginal fields.” 123m barrels crude
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has revealed that Port Harcourt Refinery, Dangote Refinery, Warri Refinery, and other functional refineries will receive 123,480,500 barrels of crude oil between January and June 2025, which is the total crude requirement of refiners during the period.The regulator estimated daily crude oil requirements for local refiners at 770,500 barrels per day and a monthly requirement of 23,812,000 barrels per month.
The NUPRC said this in the Domestic Crude Oil Requirement and Crude Oil Production Forecast for the First Half of 2025 obtained by our correspondent on Wednesday.
To meet the requirement, the NUPRC said it targets crude oil output to hit over two million barrels per day.
The production target is hinged on Project 1 Million Barrels, which was launched in October 2024.
The NUPRC is empowered by the PIA to ensure domestic crude supply to local refineries based on the ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ model.
The regulator said the move is under Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021 and it is aimed at effective capacity utilisation of the nation’s domestic refineries by ensuring a consistent supply of crude oil.
The NUPRC said, “The forecasted daily crude requirement for Refineries which is 770,500 Bpd), is about 37 per cent of the forecasted first half 2025 average daily production of 2,066,940 Bpd.”
The forecast is for nine active refineries, according to the NUPRC.
A breakdown showed that the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals require 99,550,000 barrels from January to June 2025. The refinery’s daily requirement is 550,000mbpd while the monthly requirement is 17.05 million barrels. The facility, however, has an optimal capacity of 650,000bpd.
The Warri Refinery has the second highest requirement, estimated at 13,5875,000 barrels in the first half, while the daily and monthly requirements are 75,000bpd and 2.325 million barrels, respectively.
The Kaduna Refinery and Petrochemical Company Ltd has an estimated requirement of 3,960,000 barrels. The refinery’s daily requirement is 66,000bpd and 1,980,000 barrels.
Port Harcourt Refinery Company Ltd (Old) has a daily requirement of 60,000 barrels per day, a monthly requirement of 1,860,000 barrels and a half-year requirement of 2,868,000 barrels.
Port Harcourt-based Aradel Refinery is estimated to consume 1,267,000 barrels in the first half of 2025 while the daily need of the refinery is 11,000bpd and 215,000 barrels monthly.
OPAC Refineries in Delta State has a crude requirement of 5,000bpd, 150,000 barrels per month and 900,000 barrels in the first half.
Imo State-based Waltersmith Refinery and Petrochemical Company Ltd have a half-year requirement of 814,500 barrels, a monthly and daily requirement of 139,000 barrels, and 4,500 barrels per day.
Edo State-based Dupot Midstream Company Ltd has a half-year, monthly and daily requirement of 360,000 barrels, 62,000 barrels and 2000bpd, respectively.
Edo Refinery and Petrochemical Company Ltd has a half-year requirement of 186,000 barrels, a monthly requirement of 31,000 barrels and a daily requirement of 1,000.
NUPRC said, “It is leveraging the capacity of upstream operators to meet the target daily production of 2,500,000 bpd in the short term.
“This strategic initiative aligns with Nigeria’s commitment to bolstering its domestic refining capacity and ensuring the sustainability of its oil industry.
“The first half of 2025 is expected to witness increased synergy between local refineries and producing companies, setting the stage for a more robust and self-reliant petroleum landscape in Nigeria.”
PUNCH
…Governor trounces APC’s Oyebamiji with 66,252
The Independent National Electoral Commission has declared Governor Ademola Adeleke, of the Accord Party, the winner of the 2026 governorship election.
Announcing the final results, INEC Returning Officer, Prof. Joshua Ogunwole, the Vice- Chancellor of the Federal University, Oye-Ekiti declared Adeleke winner and returned him elected.
Ogunwole announced that the Accord candidate secured 511,067 while his closest challenger, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress, recorded 444,815 votes.
Adeleke trounced his major opponent with 66,252 votes amid wild jubilation by party supporters and other residents.
Details later…
The Osun State Governor and Accord Party candidate, Ademola Adeleke, has won 19 of the 30 Local Government Areas in Saturday’s governorship election, while the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Oyebamiji, secured victory in 11 LGAs.Download Offline Maps
The results are being collated and announced, with the Independent National Electoral Commission expected to make the official declaration after the completion of the process.
Adeleke recorded notable victories across several parts of the state, including Ede South, Ede North, Osogbo, Ife Central, Ife East, Ife North, Ilesa West, Odo Otin, Egbedore and Iwo.
Oyebamiji, however, won key LGAs including Ilesa East, Boripe, Irepodun, Obokun, Atakumosa West, Atakumosa East, Irewole, Isokan, Ola-Oluwa, Ife South and Olorunda.
The results announced so far show a closely contested election between the two major candidates, with the other candidates recording significantly lower figures in most of the LGAs.Download Interactive Maps
In Boluwaduro, Adeleke polled 7,118 votes against Oyebamiji’s 7,050. In Ede South, Adeleke secured 26,188 votes while the APC candidate scored 6,219.
Adeleke also won Ife North with 13,879 votes to Oyebamiji’s 9,613; Ilesa West with 16,196 against 12,756; Ifedayo with 7,427 against 6,836; and Ife Central with 21,171 against 15,913.
In Osogbo, Adeleke recorded 36,480 votes while Oyebamiji polled 30,474. He also won Oriade with 21,343 votes to 14,863 and Odo Otin with 18,003 votes against 15,435.
Other LGAs won by Adeleke included Ife East, where he scored 27,201 votes against Oyebamiji’s 18,600; Ifelodun, 21,107 against 18,396; Iwo, 27,085 against 19,660; Ede North, 35,427 against 10,283; Ila, 16,211 against 12,934; Ayedire, 11,073 against 9,910; Egbedore, 19,278 against 11,194; and Ayedaade, 16,681 against 15,719.Design Campaign Signs
Oyebamiji secured victories in Ilesa East with 16,208 votes against Adeleke’s 12,280; Boripe with 19,963 against 12,448; Irepodun with 15,713 against 14,504; and Obokun with 16,120 against 12,023.
He also won Atakumosa West, polling 10,037 votes to Adeleke’s 7,479; Irewole, 29,972 against 10,934; Atakumosa East, 9,936 against 7,872; Isokan, 14,063 against 13,765; Ola-Oluwa, 10,782 against 10,063; Ife South, 14,678 against 13,507; and Olorunda, 24,671 against 23,514.
The outcome places Adeleke ahead in the overall LGA tally, although the final result remains subject to the completion of the official collation and declaration by INEC.
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As of about 4:30pm on Saturday, INEC had uploaded 903 of the 3,763 expected polling-unit results to its Result Viewing Portal (IReV), representing about 24 per cent of the results expected across the state.
The emerging figures show Adeleke’s party making an early statement, particularly in Osogbo, where results from two polling units reviewed showed the Accord Party ahead of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
At Ward 4, Unit 39, Osogbo Local Government Area, Accord secured 65 votes, while the APC polled 43. The ADC recorded two votes, while ZLP, AA and AAC each scored one vote.
Another result from Ward 4, Unit 13, also in Osogbo, further tilted in favour of the Accord Party, which scored 134 votes against 75 votes for the APC. The ADC polled four votes, while ADP, AAC and APGA recorded one vote each.
The figures have placed Adeleke ahead in the early results emerging from the available uploads, although the lead cannot yet be treated as an indication of the final statewide outcome.
The race remains open, with thousands of polling-unit results still to be uploaded, verified and collated through the official INEC process.
The emerging results are nevertheless significant because they provide the first concrete picture of how the three leading contenders — Adeleke of the Accord Party, APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji and African Democratic Congress candidate Najeem Salaam — are performing in areas where results have been made available.
The early advantage for Adeleke comes after a tense election day marked by complaints over delays in the electronic transmission of results, alleged incidents of intimidation and vote-buying, as well as isolated reports of violence.
Adeleke had earlier expressed confidence in victory after casting his vote, while Oyebamiji also declared that he expected to win the contest. Salaam, meanwhile, raised concerns over the alleged non-recognition of some ADC agents and later reported an attack at his polling unit in Ejigbo.
Attention has now shifted from voting to the results battle, with parties and supporters closely monitoring the IReV portal and the official collation centres.
Following the conclusion of voting, presiding officers have commenced the sorting and counting of ballots at polling units, with results beginning to emerge from different parts of the state in Saturday’s governorship election.
Three major candidates in the Osun governorship election had expressed confidence in emerging victorious as the polls entered the sorting and collation stage, with each candidate and their supporters optimistic about securing the mandate of the electorate.
Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, on Saturday, expressed confidence in emerging victorious in the ongoing governorship election after casting his vote at Sagba Abogunde Ward 2, Unit 9, in Ede North Local Government Area.
Meanwhile, the African Democratic Congress governorship candidate in Osun State, Najeem Salaam, raised concerns over the alleged non-recognition of his party agents in several areas across the state during Saturday’s election.
Meanwhile, as at 4.30pm, a check by our correspondent to the IReV portal indicated that 903 out of 3,763 units have been uploaded
Results announced so far:
1. Ward 4, Unit 39, Osogbo Local Government Area
ZLP — 1
AA — 1
AAC — 1
ADC — 2
APC — 43
Accord Party — 65
Presiding Officer: Oyeranmi Deborah
2. Ward 4, Unit 13, Osogbo Local Government Area
Accord Party — 134
APC — 75
ADC — 4
ADP — 1
AAC — 1
APGA — 1
Presiding Officer: Mabel Olowolayemo
3. From Ede North, 007/02/07/29
Former Abia Speaker and APC House of Representatives candidate, Rt. Hon. Chinedum Enyinnaya Orji, says President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s combined use of military operations and community-based programmes is beginning to “reclaim Nigeria’s peace” after years of insecurity.
Orji argued that the administration since May 2023 has refused to treat force and prevention as competing options, and has instead pursued both simultaneously.
According to him, the kinetic component is the “hard edge of state power” involving the deployment of the Armed Forces, police, and intelligence agencies to directly confront criminal networks. He cited sustained operations against terrorist enclaves in the Northeast and raids on bandit camps in Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna and Niger states.
He also pointed to targeted rescues of kidnapped Nigerians, improved highway policing, aerial surveillance, and stronger intelligence coordination among the DSS, NIA, police and military, which he said had helped security agencies move from reaction to anticipation.
In an article titled “A Steady Hand in a Storm: President Tinubu’s Dual Strategy for Reclaiming Nigeria’s Peace,” Orji argued that the non-kinetic component tackles the root causes of insecurity through dialogue, economic empowerment, education, deradicalisation and rehabilitation.
“Peace held by soldiers alone is fragile. Peace owned by communities lasts,” he wrote. “One clears the ground, the other plants something better in its place.”
The former Speaker said the administration’s early directives included empowering the service chiefs, improving inter-agency coordination and strengthening funding and morale for frontline troops without political interference.
On the non-kinetic side, he said traditional rulers, religious leaders and civil society were being brought into security discussions because lasting peace cannot be decreed from Abuja alone.
He listed agricultural support, access to credit and rural infrastructure as part of efforts to address the economic desperation that can make young people vulnerable to recruitment by criminal groups.
Orji also defended deradicalisation and rehabilitation programmes for repentant fighters and victims of violent extremism, describing them as strategic tools rather than signs of weakness.
“This is not weakness. It is strategy. It reduces the pool of foot soldiers available to violent groups and gives communities a path back to normalcy,” he stated.
He said the dual approach was also being applied to communal conflicts through mediation, land-use dialogue and livelihood alternatives designed to address grievances before they turn violent.
In the Northwest, Orji said kinetic operations had helped reopen markets and grazing routes, while dialogue with farmer and herder associations was helping reduce reprisal attacks and establish early-warning mechanisms.
He said the approach also extended beyond Nigeria’s borders through ECOWAS and bilateral security partnerships, noting that criminal networks and traffickers do not respect national boundaries.
The APC chieftain further highlighted the use of hotspot mapping, drone surveillance and community reporting apps as part of what he described as a more data-driven approach to security, allowing resources to be directed toward emerging threats rather than only areas where attacks have already occurred.
Orji argued that security has direct economic implications, saying improved stability would strengthen confidence in agriculture, mining, logistics and other productive sectors.
“Jobs follow confidence,” he wrote.
He also stressed the importance of citizens becoming active partners in security through neighbourhood watches, tip lines and town-hall engagements.
“Citizens are not spectators,” he stated.
The former Speaker said what distinguishes the administration’s approach is patience and continuity, arguing that security gains are cumulative rather than theatrical and that institutions need time to learn, adapt and consolidate progress.
He also pointed to legal and constitutional measures, including improved equipment procurement and support for ongoing discussions around state policing, saying Nigeria’s size requires a layered security architecture.
While defending the administration’s direction, Orji acknowledged that the challenge remains.
“No honest assessment will claim the job is finished. Insecurity is hydra-headed and will test any government. But the direction is clear and the method is sound,” he said.
He called for continuity in the strategy, urging government to sustain pressure on criminal groups while deepening investments in vulnerable communities.
Orji said the ultimate objective should go beyond simply reducing attacks to creating conditions in which insecurity becomes increasingly difficult to sustain.
“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has set a template: firmness without recklessness, and compassion without naivety. In a nation as complex as ours, that balance is leadership,” Orji concluded.
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